ETH staking data reversal: Exit to zero vs. surge of 1.3 million tokens, when is the bottom?

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Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)

On January 7th, the staking exit queue under Ethereum’s PoS mechanism officially reset to zero. At least from on-chain data, the prolonged exit pressure over several months has finally been fully absorbed, and no new large-scale redemption requests have been observed at present.

Meanwhile, the scale of entering the staking queue has shown a significant increase, currently reaching approximately 1,304,400 ETH, with an average waiting time of about 22 days and 15 hours. This state is almost a complete reversal from mid-September last year.

At that time, ETH was at a cyclical high of around $4,700, and market sentiment was high, but the staking side showed a different attitude: 2.66 million ETH chose to exit staking, with the exit queue waiting time exceeding 40 days at one point. Over the following three and a half months, ETH’s price fell about 34%, dropping from $4,700 to $3,100.

Now, after a deep correction in price, the exit queue has finally been fully absorbed.

The staking queue is an “emotion indicator,” but not necessarily a price signal?

Generally speaking, changes in validator queues are considered important indicators of market sentiment. The logic behind this is that Ethereum’s PoS aims to ensure consensus stability and does not allow nodes to enter or exit arbitrarily. Instead, it uses flow control mechanisms to regulate staking and withdrawal behaviors rhythmically.

Therefore, when ETH prices are high, withdrawal demand tends to accumulate easily. Some stakers may choose to realize gains, but potential selling pressure does not release instantly. Instead, it is “stretched out” on-chain through the exit queue; when withdrawal demand gradually dries up or is fully absorbed, it may indicate that a cycle of structural selling pressure has come to an end.

From this perspective, the recent clearing of the exit queue, synchronized with its increase, indeed constitutes a noteworthy change. However, I believe that although this change appears to form a positive resonance on the surface, its influence on market prices—note, influence—is not equivalent to the “high exit, low entry” phase of September. Because ETH entering the staking queue does not necessarily mean “new funds are actively buying ETH at this moment.” A significant portion of the staked tokens may have been accumulated earlier, with reconfiguration happening now. Therefore, the rise in the staking queue more reflects a shift in long-term yield preferences, network security considerations, and staking return stability, rather than an immediate increase in price demand. This also means that the current improvement in queue structure is more about expected recovery than a forceful short-term price boost.

Nevertheless, the significant growth in ETH entering the staking queue is still worth noting. Its main driver comes from Ethereum’s largest DAO treasury, BitMine. Data from CryptoQuant shows that BitMine has staked about 771,000 ETH in the past two weeks, accounting for 18.6% of its total holdings of approximately 4.14 million ETH.

This indicates that the recent shift in staking trend is driven by a single large institutional asset allocation, rather than a synchronized market-wide risk appetite revival. Therefore, it cannot be simply interpreted as a “return of full bullish sentiment.” However, in the crypto industry, where markets are emerging and liquidity distribution is uneven, actions by large institutions tend to be more frequent and are more likely to provide short-term emotional support and expectation recovery in the market.

Whether this trend can continue or spread to a broader range of participants remains to be seen. But from on-chain fundamentals, several key metrics of Ethereum are showing signs of marginal improvement.

From “Staking Changes” to “Fundamental Synergy Improvement”

First, on the developer side, Ethereum’s development activity is reaching record highs. Data shows that in Q4 2025, Ethereum deployed about 8.7 million smart contracts, setting a new quarterly record. This shift is more aligned with sustained product and infrastructure development rather than short-term speculation. More contract deployments mean more DApps, RWAs, stablecoins, and infrastructure are being implemented, continuously strengthening Ethereum’s role as a core execution and settlement layer.

In the stablecoin sector, on-chain transfer volume of Ethereum-based stablecoins exceeded $8 trillion in Q4, also a record high. From the issuance structure, Ethereum’s advantage in the stablecoin ecosystem remains significant. Data shows that Ethereum’s stablecoin issuance accounts for 54.18% of the total, far surpassing TRON (26.07%), Solana (5.03%), BSC (4.74%), and other mainstream blockchains.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s Gas fees have hit the lowest levels since mainnet launch and continue to break records. At certain times, Gas fees even fell below 0.03 Gwei. Considering Ethereum’s ongoing network expansion this year, this trend has room to continue in the medium term. Lower transaction costs directly reduce on-chain activity barriers and provide a practical foundation for ongoing application layer expansion.

Looking at exchange balances, Ethereum’s potential selling pressure remains low. In mid-December, the exchange supply of ETH dropped to 12.7 million, the lowest since 2016. Especially since August 2025, this indicator has decreased by over 25%. Although recent exchange balances have slightly rebounded, the increase is only about 200,000 ETH, remaining in a low range historically, indicating that traders’ willingness to sell is not strong.

Additionally, crypto KOL rip.eth recently posted on X that, based on the gap between total value locked (TVL) and market cap, Ethereum might be the most undervalued blockchain network currently. Data shows that Ethereum carries 59% of the crypto market’s TVL, but its token ETH’s market cap share is only about 14%. In comparison, Solana’s token market cap / TVL ratio is 3% / 7%, Tron is 1% / 3.7%, and BNB Chain is 4.5% / 5.5%. This somewhat reflects a significant valuation mismatch between ETH and its underlying economic activity.

Conclusion

Overall, the change in the staking queue may not be the “single variable” that determines price movement, but when it aligns with improvements in developer activity, stablecoin usage, transaction costs, and exchange balances, it no longer appears as an isolated signal. Instead, it presents a more comprehensive fundamental picture.

For Ethereum, this may not be a rapid reversal driven purely by sentiment, but rather a process of gradual recovery of structural stability after a deep correction.