2026-01-07 21:20:44

Recently, there has been quite a bit of internal turmoil at the Federal Reserve. The San Francisco Fed released a report proposing a seemingly counterintuitive view: an average of about 15% high tariffs by 2025 may not push up inflation, but could actually lower inflation levels.

Their logic is as follows—high tariffs indeed increase economic uncertainty, but this uncertainty causes businesses to cut back on investment, and consumers to tighten their belts, leading to a decrease in aggregate demand. When the "deflationary pressure" from insufficient demand is strong enough, it may offset the impact of rising import prices. It sounds coherent, but the problem is.

The St. Louis Fed and the Boston Fed hold another view: tariffs will ultimately be passed on to consumer goods prices, pushing up the CPI. The three major Fed institutions are at odds, which has directly caused market unease.

When policy outlooks are unclear, investors start to worry. The most direct manifestation is increased stock market volatility, with traders swinging back and forth between "risks of economic slowdown" and "potential policy reversals." From the perspective of the crypto market, any policy-related movement is enough to trigger intense emotional swings.

Simply put: as long as the Fed is still debating, the market can only continue to fluctuate with high volatility. This pattern is unlikely to change in the short term—every policy signal could become a turning point for prices.

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TokenomicsShaman

· 1h ago

Federal Reserve infighting, retail investors suffer, this wave of volatility is too exciting --- Can a 15% tariff reduce inflation? I really didn't expect that, this logic is a bit extreme --- Three Federal Reserve branches each say different things, the crypto world was directly played to death, hilarious --- Wait, reducing investment and consumption decline can offset price increases? Sounds pretty convincing --- Policy uncertainty is the most deadly, at this time holding coins is really gambling --- The key is no one knows who is right in the end, so money has to follow the fluctuations --- If this San Francisco theory is wrong, it would be a textbook-level train wreck --- High volatility means high opportunity, but the premise is to survive until that moment --- To be straightforward, the Federal Reserve is arguing, and our money is spinning in the gamble --- Doing trades under this uncertainty is truly gambling on the fate of the country, nothing else

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NFTFreezer

· 13h ago

The Fed internal conflicts, we're the ones paying the price. This trick is really clever. Will tariffs increase or not? Everyone has their own reasoning, and the market should be panicking. With such big fluctuations, short-term trading is just gambling on luck. I'll still HODL and wait for signals. Three Fed members fighting, retail investors caught in the middle and getting cut. That's a bit outrageous. Policy signals become turning points for prices, so it's all about guessing. Who can be sure? This kind of uncertainty is really damn annoying. Playing with crypto requires constant vigilance. This report from San Francisco is truly outrageous. Deflation can actually suppress inflation? Overthinking it, right? The Fed has conflicting statements. We retail investors just have to dance to the fluctuations—it's fate. Tariffs suppress demand and inflation. Theoretically, yes, but will reality follow? Question mark. Market anxiety index is off the charts. When the trend changes, it changes suddenly. My heart can't take it.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-09 03:19

The Federal Reserve triangle play has begun. Retail investors should continue to stay rooted in the oscillation zone.

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LightningSentry

· 01-08 06:38

The Fed is fighting, and we retail investors are suffering --- This script is well-written, lowering tariffs to reduce inflation? Just kidding --- Honestly, if a 15% tariff actually reduced inflation, we would have been rich long ago --- The three Federal Reserve officials each say different things; how can investors' sentiment not be shattered? --- Just want to know whose prediction will hit the mark in the end; betting five bucks can also lead to losses --- The Federal Reserve is the best at playing policy uncertainty --- Big fluctuations, but anyway, it's all an opportunity to cut the leeks, right? --- Are tariffs bottoming out, everyone? I'm still waiting for the Fed to give a clear answer --- Might as well ignore policy signals and just pick a direction to go all-in; destiny is in your own hands

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TokenUnlocker

· 01-07 21:49

Federal Reserve internal conflicts, and we retail investors suffer --- Same old story, lowering tariffs to reduce inflation? That’s a joke --- Three different statements from the Fed, they’re basically gambling with our money --- Volatility is just volatility, who cares about the logic, follow the trend --- The logic from San Francisco is really bold—tightening consumers’ belts? Dream on --- Unclear policies are the most frightening, it feels like a downturn is coming --- So it still depends on what the FED does next. Holding cash feels a bit uncertain right now

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MergeConflict

· 01-07 21:42

The Federal Reserve is each playing its own tune, so we just have to follow the fluctuations.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 01-07 21:39

The Federal Reserve internal conflicts, we are forced to watch the drama, the crypto world is the most miserable. Three factions have different opinions, and the market is bound to be chaotic; no one can predict this wave. Are tariffs causing inflation or deflation? People can't even figure it out. When the Fed argues, we get caught in the crossfire; the rhythm is entirely dictated by policies. High volatility is probably the norm; just get used to it. That's why I don't trust any official statements; in the end, it's all about cutting the leeks. Wait, are they really arguing about this? Feels like armchair strategists after the fact. Whether tariffs will increase CPI or not, the market has already spoken with its feet. The Federal Reserve acts independently, no wonder traders are all anxious. To put it simply, uncertainty itself is the biggest risk; just watch the show.

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PumpingCroissant

· 01-07 21:35

Federal Reserve's love triangle, retail investors' sacrifice, hilarious

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StealthDeployer

· 01-07 21:34

The Federal Reserve keeps talking different things, should we just accumulate coins? --- Another big drama of "I say inflation, you say deflation," really makes retail investors worry for you. --- I hate this kind of uncertainty the most. With such big fluctuations, who dares to go all-in? --- Can a 15% tariff really reduce inflation? I don't believe it... In the end, won't we just face higher prices? --- This wave of market movement has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve's internal conflicts; it's just an excuse. --- Haha, with the three major Federal Reserve banks fighting, let's just watch the show and hold our coins. --- The key is who ultimately has the final say; otherwise, it's just pure gambling. --- Inflation and deflation tug-of-war back and forth, but the working class at the bottom remains the same. --- With such dense policy signals, short-term volatility can't be stopped at all. I need to reduce my positions. --- These small market fluctuations can't scare the old-timers; whether to stockpile or not, just do it. --- Once demand drops, no matter how high the tariffs are, they can't save the economy. The Federal Reserve is overthinking. --- Oh my, one moment talking about lowering inflation, the next pushing up CPI. Who can keep up?

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