【Market Anomalies】The movement of AVAX reveals a distorted phenomenon—institutions and retail traders are trading in completely opposite directions.

Latest on-chain data shows that exchanges with large holdings (HTX, Crypto.com) have a shorting ratio as high as 94.1%, while retail-focused platforms (dYdX, MEXC) are generally bullish. This split is not only psychological but also directly reflected in liquidation data: the amount of long positions liquidated is 66 times that of short positions, indicating that long traders are being bloodied.

**The current price hovers around 14.04, with a clear downward trend.** The outflow signal from large on-chain funds is very clear—smart money is systematically withdrawing.

【Technical Analysis】The RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound, but this is precisely where the divergence between major players and retail traders occurs. Many aim to bottom fish in the 13.65-14.04 range, but the smart money’s short positions indicate that the downside could be larger than expected.

【Trading Strategy】If AVAX rebounds to the 14.24-14.45 zone, it presents a relatively safe short entry point. The target is 13.30, with a stop-loss set at 14.55. If the price directly breaks below 13.86, additional shorts can be added, with the next support at 13.65.

This is a battle of probabilities. Following the direction of big funds is often more advantageous than going against the trend.