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Is the US dollar really declining?

The US "Small Non-Farm Payrolls" data on January 7th provided the answer—ADP employment increased by only 41,000, far below market expectations. This is not an isolated phenomenon. The labor market is clearly cooling down, and unemployment pressures are building. Citigroup researchers have already begun discussing scenarios where interest rates could be cut by 75-100 basis points in 2026, and dovish voices on Wall Street are growing louder.

The market's reaction is straightforward. The US dollar index is weakening, gold prices are surging, and BTC remains steady at $92,000. What does this indicate? Capital is searching for alternatives. Not because of a single event, but because a systemic problem is accumulating.

Looking at the actions of global central banks makes this clear. Central banks around the world are aggressively stockpiling gold, and the share of US dollar reserves in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 42%, the lowest in 25 years. Geopolitical tensions are tearing apart, economic data is worsening, and confidence in the dollar is eroding from two directions—doubts about the dollar’s value and uncertainty about US policies.

When the Federal Reserve is forced to consider easing monetary policy, the halo surrounding dollar-denominated assets like US Treasuries and US stocks begins to fade. The market is asking one question: if the dollar depreciates, how much are dollar-valued assets really worth?

This is not about betting against the US but describing a real reversal. De-dollarization is moving from theory to practice. As more transactions leave the dollar pricing system and international trade begins to seek new valuation methods, this change is slow but steady.

From this perspective, BTC—an asset that does not rely on any country's credit—becomes increasingly important. The current question is not whether BTC can break through $100,000, but whether, against the backdrop of the global decline in dollar dominance, BTC’s role as a store of value will become more prominent.

Friday’s non-farm payroll data will give the market a short-term direction. But the long-term trend is already taking shape—the decline of US dollar hegemony is a process, and in this process, those who can provide more stable value storage will have opportunities.

What do you think? Will the US dollar slowly decline or suddenly come under pressure? What other opportunities in the crypto market this year do you find promising?