The trading volume in the crypto market has sharply shrunk, and retail investors have long lost their enthusiasm. Only institutions are quietly accumulating at this point. This situation is actually very similar to the atmosphere at the bottom of the last bear market.

Remember the last time? When Bitcoin dropped to $20,000, a large number of retail investors were fantasizing about the "real bottom" at $8,000. But what happened—when the price really moved in that direction, they didn’t dare to buy in. Instead, they waited until the price skyrocketed and the risks were off the charts, then rushed in following the trend, only to end up with nothing. This is the routine of retail investors losing money year after year.

Now? No one can say where the bottom is, and short-term rises and falls are entirely controlled by the whales. Any good or bad news can be used for reverse manipulation. But in the long run, the market still follows cyclical patterns. To stimulate retail investors to return, there needs to be a strong rally or a bizarre spike; otherwise, if the market keeps oscillating like this, retail patience will be worn down to zero.

From the whales’ tactics, it’s clear they are both accumulating and selling at the same time, most likely creating false signals to the market.

A straightforward piece of advice for retail investors: if you have spare funds, stick to dollar-cost averaging; if not, wait and see. Never leverage high, and don’t believe those "90% accuracy" nonsense. The most important thing right now is survival—capital safety comes first.