2026-01-08 01:24:34

The US December ADP employment data was released, showing signs of a mild recovery in employment. This data quickly cooled market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped from 17.7% yesterday to 11.1%, a significant decline. Meanwhile, in the prediction market Polymarket, related rate cut bets have also retreated sharply — the January rate cut probability fell from 10% to 8%. After the data was released, market participants quickly adjusted their expectations for the Fed's policy path, and the improvement in employment data seems to have provided strong support for the recent cooling of rate cut expectations.

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HorizonHunter

· 01-08 01:54

Once the employment data is released, the job market outlook is shattered... CME dropped directly from 17.7% to 11.1%, this pullback is indeed quite harsh.

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ZenChainWalker

· 01-08 01:54

It's another employment data disruption; the interest rate cut dream is about to be dashed again.

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rugdoc.eth

· 01-08 01:53

As soon as the employment data was released, the market started to reverse its moves, with the probability of interest rate cuts plummeting. Looks like we need to wait a bit longer.

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RugpullSurvivor