The latest market data sends a clear signal: investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve's cautious stance.

Looking at January, the market assigns an 88.4% probability that the Fed will hold steady, with only an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Moving to March, the situation loosens somewhat—the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 40.3%, but "no change" remains the mainstream expectation at 55.4%. As for a 50 basis point cut in one go? Don't count on it; the probability is only 4.3%.

These numbers reveal a reality: the Federal Reserve is unlikely to open the floodgates for rate cuts in the short term. The market's pricing logic is straightforward—although there are signs of easing inflation, it's not enough to immediately shift policy. For traders, this means market volatility may persist until the monetary policy truly adjusts.