Bitcoin completes year-end wash, market structure lighter in 2026—Glassnode analysis

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: Bitcoin has completed the ‘big cleanup’ at the end of the year… A lighter structure by 2026, remaining variables – Glassnode Original Link: Bitcoin(BTC)after large-scale adjustments and year-end position clearing, is welcoming 2026 within a relatively stable market structure. The profit-taking pressure and derivatives position burdens that persisted at the end of last year have been significantly alleviated, and signs of a gradual shift from a defensive phase to a re-risk appetite phase are emerging within the market.

Profit-taking pressure sharply eased

According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin rose about 8.5% at the beginning of the year, breaking through the long-term compression zone of $87,000 and rebounding to around $94,000. The most notable change during this process is the rapid easing of profit-taking pressure. In Q4 of last year, the daily profit-taking volume exceeded $1 billion, but by year-end, it had decreased to an average of $180 million per day.

This indicates that the selling pressure mainly from long-term holders has been essentially released. As selling volume decreases, prices find support below, allowing for re-accumulation of upward momentum since the beginning of the year.

Upward conditions not fully opened yet

However, the upward conditions are not fully in place. Bitcoin has now entered the seller’s pressure zone near previous highs, known as “overhead supply.” On-chain analysis shows that between $92,000 and $117,000, there is dense distribution of buy-in chips from recent highs, with investors at cost basis potentially willing to sell.

The market considers the average cost basis of short-term holders as a key indicator of trend reversal. This level is currently around $99,000. If the price stabilizes and recovers this zone, investor sentiment will improve, possibly triggering a trend reversal. Conversely, if it fails to break through this level, it could, like early 2022, lead to a failed rebound and a new round of correction.

Positive signals in the derivatives market

The derivatives market shows more positive signs. Last year-end, Bitcoin options experienced the largest open interest expiration in history, with over 45% of overall positions closed at once. This significantly alleviated the structural hedging burden that had been suppressing prices at year-end.

Options market volatility has bottomed out and is gradually rising. Investor positions are shifting from defensive to more active participation. Put options premiums have decreased, while call options participation has increased. Since the beginning of the year, options trading flow indicates a gradually expanding bullish bias.

Particularly in the $95,000 to $104,000 range, options traders’ positions have shifted to “short gamma,” creating a structure that requires follow-up buying when prices rise. This is the opposite of the environment that suppressed prices at year-end, implying that volatility may actually increase during upward moves.

Institutional fund flows gradually recovering

Institutional fund flows also show signs of gradual recovery. The recent shift from net outflows to net inflows in US Bitcoin spot ETFs, which had been continuously withdrawing at year-end, and the sharp deleveraging in futures open interest, indicate a slow return to risk appetite. However, levels have not yet reached previous highs, suggesting overall market risk appetite remains subdued.

Corporate financial asset demand provides some support below current prices but is still characterized by intermittent and opportunistic buying. It tends to show inflows during correction phases rather than large-scale continuous buying, serving more as a buffer rather than a trend driver.

Glassnode states: “The Bitcoin market is experiencing a lighter structure after last year’s large-scale deleveraging and position clearing, preparing to face the new year. By 2026, it will undergo further restructuring to test directional trends again.”