US January CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, with core CPI falling back to 2.5%, both below expectations. This data is quite interesting—it pushes the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March to 75%-80%, and the chance of consecutive rate cuts in June exceeds 90%. As a result, the US dollar index has broken below 100 (a three-month low), and the appeal of silver priced in USD has surged, with valuation logic beginning to emerge. Coupled with the ongoing widening supply-demand gap, the upward momentum for silver is becoming increasingly solid.

Geopolitical conflicts are frequent, with tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe intensifying, fueling risk aversion sentiment. Silver, being inexpensive and highly liquid, has become the preferred safe-haven asset for small and medium investors. But the real confidence doesn’t lie there. From an industrial perspective, industrial consumption of silver has exceeded 60%, with demand in emerging sectors like new energy and AI servers continuing to expand. Global silver supply has been in shortage for five consecutive years, with tight inventories. This fundamental pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term, providing strong support for prices.

What about technical analysis? Since the beginning of the year, XAG has experienced parabolic growth, with a steep short-term upward trend, and prices are steadily above the 21-day moving average, indicating a clear upward channel structure. It previously found strong support around $72, completing the full trend confirmation of “breakout - pullback - rebound,” and is now in the trend continuation phase.

The trading suggestion is as follows: Entry at 76.8, close to the 5-day moving average, representing a reasonable retracement point within the uptrend. 76.3 is suitable for adding positions, aligning with the upper boundary of the previous consolidation platform, with good support validity and risk-reward ratio. The stop-loss is set at 75.8, where the 21-day moving average and previous neckline resonate as support, and it’s also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Falling below this point would indicate the short-term upward structure has been broken, and setting a stop-loss can effectively avoid reversal risks. The target is 80-82.

Of course, this is just personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.