Why is Iran playing such a bad hand?​

Brothers, lately I've been shaking my head at the situation in Iran. They started with a good hand but played it terribly. Now the economy is collapsing, the currency is crashing, and ordinary people are on the streets—truly fulfilling the old saying: “He who commits evil will not live long.” Today, let’s break it down in plain language: how did Iran push itself into this mess?
1. Greed knows no bounds: trying to shake off China, but ending up losing their bread and butter​
Who is Iran’s biggest buyer of oil? Everyone knows it’s China. Data shows that 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, selling 17.8 million tons over the past 14 months, mostly settled in RMB and euros. This should have been a guaranteed profit route, but Iran insisted on “playing with fire.”
They thought selling oil to China was too cheap and wanted to raise prices, also trying to reduce dependence on a single buyer. But what happened? India promised to buy 15 million barrels but didn’t buy a single barrel; other countries fear US sanctions and dare not take the deal. In the end, the oil piled up at sea with no buyers, and December exports were cut in half, causing revenue to plummet.
Brother Bin’s comment: Doing business is about consistency. Relying on China to survive while trying to raise prices and shift blame—neither side benefits. Can you trust a partner like India who “makes big promises”? Truly brainless.
2. Internal mess: currency collapse, hyperinflation, and public unrest​
Iranian rial has depreciated faster than waste paper in recent years. The black market exchange rate is 550,000 rials per US dollar, down over 90% compared to ten years ago. People’s life savings evaporate instantly, prices skyrocket, and even basic food becomes a problem. By the end of December, merchants in Tehran simply closed their shops and took to the streets shouting slogans from “We want food” to “We want freedom,” with some even calling for regime change.
Even more absurd, the government’s way of solving the crisis—resigning the central bank governor and replacing him with a “familiar face” to put out the fire. But this person was just ousted eight months ago over currency issues and is back again—nothing has changed.
Brother Bin’s comment: The economy is collapsing, but instead of reform, they just change people and suppress? Tear gas can’t be your meal! Now the anger has shifted from “blaming the US” to “blaming the government,” and this fire will eventually burn back on them.
3. Sanctions are external factors, but the root cause is self-inflicted​
US sanctions are harsh—cutting off oil exports, kicking Iran out of SWIFT—but internal problems are the real issue.
– Distorted economic structure: heavily reliant on oil, with 80% of government revenue from oil, while manufacturing and agriculture are in ruins.
– Elite monopoly: Revolutionary Guards control oil, telecom, infrastructure, and all the profits go into their pockets. Ordinary people can’t even get a bowl of soup.
– Mysterious operations: sanctioned while supporting foreign armed groups, with money not spent on people’s livelihoods but on geopolitical games.
Brother Bin’s comment: Sanctions are like rain—if you refuse the umbrella, you’ll get wet and catch a cold. Who’s to blame then?
4. Will China step in to save the day? Suspense!​
Iran is in chaos now, and China is unlikely to jump into the muddy water easily. Why?
– High risk: Iran’s political situation is unstable, with fierce internal struggles among the Revolutionary Guards, conservatives, and reformers. Chinese investments could be a gamble.
– Plenty of alternatives: Russia is selling oil at discounts, and Saudi Arabia and Iraq are stable suppliers. China doesn’t need to stake everything on Iran.
– Iran’s credit is bankrupt: The “25-year cooperation agreement” was supposed to be solid, but Iran tore up the deal first. Who dares to cooperate long-term now?
Brother Bin’s comment: China values “stability” above all. Iran is now mentally split, fighting itself—wait until it wakes up, then we can talk. Otherwise, any investment is just throwing good money after bad.
Brother Bin’s summary​
Iran’s crisis appears to be caused by sanctions on the surface, but in reality, it’s the result of greed, corruption, and shortsightedness. The patience of the people has run out, the regime’s credibility has collapsed, and even China, the biggest buyer, might turn away. What’s next? Either thorough reform and self-healing or waiting for even bigger chaos.