#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 The Federal Reserve's rate cut window is being readjusted, with March potentially becoming the first turning point.

According to the latest market data, traders' expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts are subtly shifting. The previous optimistic outlook of "rapid and aggressive rate cuts" has now been replaced by a more cautious attitude.

In January, there is almost no suspense—the probability of holding steady is as high as 88%, a consensus in the market. But the real divergence appears in March.

By the March FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 40.3%. It sounds not low, but this still indicates that the market believes the likelihood of "remaining on hold" is greater (55.4%). As for the aggressive expectation of a 50 basis point cut in one go? Few are betting on that now, with a probability of less than 5%.

Why has the sentiment changed? First, inflation is still lingering and hasn't fully subsided. Second, recent economic data continues to show resilience, giving the Fed more reason to hold a wait-and-see stance. Against this backdrop, the Fed might choose to keep interest rates at relatively high levels for a longer period. $DOGE $PEPE The performance of risk assets also somewhat reflects the market's new judgment on the liquidity environment.

What does this adjustment mean? If a rate cut actually happens, the timeline will be pushed back compared to earlier expectations. For the crypto market, this means the tightening environment may continue for some time.

What do you think of this new expectation window? Do you think the market is being overly cautious, or do you believe this delay is just the beginning—ultimately, rate cuts will still come? Which month do you bet on for the first rate cut?