On Wednesday, gold showed a classic "initial rally followed by a pullback" pattern. The daytime range-bound movement seemed uneventful, but once the ADP data came in below expectations during the US session, prices surged straight to the 4430 level. It looked like a breakout was imminent, but the market held its ground here. By the end of the session, various indicators began to recover, resulting in a beautiful bottoming and rebound pattern.

The logic behind this move is actually quite clear, and two key factors cannot be ignored.

First, look at the geopolitical aspect. The US-Ukraine conflict is intensifying, and the flames are burning hotter. European and South American markets are directly frightened, with countries like the UK and France quickly taking sides, clearly dividing the camp. Capital flows are fiercely competing behind the scenes, and tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine regions remain unresolved. Asia is also in chaos. In such an environment, global funds are desperately seeking safe-haven assets, and gold, as a traditional safe haven, naturally becomes a favorite.

Secondly, from a fundamental perspective, this is a residual effect of the massive liquidity injection after 2019. The inflationary pressures caused by that liquidity are still not fully digested. Various economic contradictions and social conflicts have emerged one after another. Now, with the US debt crisis and the dollar’s credibility issues layered on top, it’s like having two swords hanging over the market.

In essence, it’s like this: inflation forces conflicts, and conflicts, in turn, amplify risk aversion, creating a reinforcing cycle. In the short term, there’s no clear solution to break this pattern. Therefore, the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver will continue to strengthen, and volatility becomes a secondary concern.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart is temporarily dull, but the weekly chart maintains a bullish pattern, and the monthly chart has already closed with six consecutive positive candles. The probability of a positive close this month is quite high. March and April are the real test periods—whether gold can hit nine consecutive days of gains depends on subsequent trading volume and news developments.

Trading ideas are straightforward: the main strategy is to buy on dips. Once the 4440 level is defended, consider entering the market. Don’t be too greedy; wait for the non-farm payroll data to be released before making decisions. Taking profits when the market is favorable is the most prudent approach.