2026-01-08 03:26:21

Looking at the data I compiled on the Federal Reserve's previous rate hike cycles, there's a pretty clear pattern.

As long as the Fed pushes interest rates above 5%, a financial crisis tends to erupt within 2-4 years from the first rate hike. Not a single exception—1982 Latin American debt crisis, 1990 Japanese bubble burst, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 2000 dot-com bubble, 2008 subprime mortgage crisis—all were caught in this pattern.

This cycle started with rate hikes in March 2022. My previous judgment was that between 2024 and 2026, a global financial crisis could be triggered.

Now? As we approach the year 2026, I feel that the risk probability is actually increasing, not decreasing. Market uncertainty is growing, and the pattern in history is right there.

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CryptoMom

· 12h ago

Is history really that absolute? It feels a bit overfitted. --- Wait, why didn't the 2012 Eurozone debt crisis fall into this pattern? --- Waiting to see the show in 2026. Anyway, bears can't make money right now. --- No, how is this data calculated? Why does it always seem to be a coincidence? --- It's not wrong to say that, but there are now too many variables in the market. Relying solely on historical comparison might not be enough. --- I've been thinking that whether it's profitable or not has already been calculated by someone else. Why should I wait for you? --- I'm genuinely a bit scared. Reducing positions early might save me. --- The pattern is right there in front of us. But what can we do? Anyway, I don't have money to buy the dip.

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MetaverseMortgage

· 01-08 03:56

Huh, this pattern is really solid. It has never let me down each time. Wait, is 2026 really coming? I'm a bit panicked right now. This round of rate hikes... it feels like the market is still fooling itself. The data is right here; what can't be avoided just can't be avoided. Crisis countdown? I need to reassess my position. History always repeats itself, and this time won't be an exception. 2026... there's still time until now, but it's definitely getting more and more tense.

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DecentralizedElder

· 01-08 03:45

Damn, this pattern is really creepy, always accurate... Wait, will I really not be able to dodge this time? History is just repeating itself; we're just paying tuition in repetition. 2026 is really coming, gotta keep some cash on hand. This data is incredible, it feels like fate is already sealed. The question is, should I sell now or continue to hold? This is the ultimate dilemma. It's another "wolf coming" year, but this wolf definitely seems to be on its way.

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FloorSweeper

· 01-08 03:38

Damn, is the 5% curse really that accurate? It’s been caught in every major crisis in history. This time, 2026, it probably really will explode, feeling a bit nervous. Betting on history repeating itself, the probability seems pretty high. The days of idling might be coming to an end, better stock up on some stablecoins. A 5% interest rate is basically a death sentence; this is always the case, and it’s a bit scary. Your data analysis is pretty thorough, but I still doubt whether we can dodge it this time. It seems that the risks in 2024-2026 are really stacking up. Don’t panic, but don’t relax either.

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NFTDreamer

· 01-08 03:34

Oh wow, the 5% interest rate spell is really unbeatable, I can never dodge it. 2026 is really coming, feeling a bit anxious. This wave is indeed more intense than expected, the market should wake up now. History is repeating itself, are we just here to watch the show? Sit and wait for death or buy the dip, that's the real question. By the way, will they make an exception this time? Oh wait, they've never made an exception before.

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