The Federal Reserve's easing expectations are heating up. Fed Governor Milan's statement on January 6 clearly indicated that this year should see interest rate cuts of more than 100 basis points, and with core inflation approaching the policy target range, this strongly suggests that a new round of easing cycle is becoming increasingly evident. The US dollar index has been suppressed and weakened as a result, and crude oil, as an asset priced in dollars, undoubtedly receives strong support for its valuation.

Supply-side conditions are also worth noting. On January 4, OPEC+ officially announced that eight core member countries have decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026, continuing the production stabilization policy established at the end of 2025. This move effectively avoids the risk of oversupply and provides a key supply floor for the market.

Looking at the latest inventory data, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week of January 2 saw an unexpected decrease of 3.831 million barrels (market expectations previously were an increase of 1.1 million barrels), with inventories falling to 419.1 million barrels. Although gasoline and distillate inventories experienced seasonal builds, the clear drawdown trend on the crude oil side reflects that end-user demand remains resilient. Refinery utilization rates remain high at 94.7%, indirectly confirming that current end demand remains steady.

Regarding geopolitical factors, although the long-term expectation of lifting Iran's oil export restrictions exists, no substantial increase in supply has occurred by early 2026. The IEA forecasts that Iran's daily export volume needs to rise to 1.8 million barrels, which depends on multiple conditions being met, making it difficult to change the current global crude oil supply-demand balance in the short term. OPEC+ maintains its demand growth expectations for 2026, further reinforcing the foundation for price upside.

From a technical perspective, 60.0 is an appropriate entry point. It coincides with the resonance of the hourly middle band and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, and also aligns with the upper boundary of the previous oscillation platform, making it a relatively rational retracement entry zone within the short-term upward trend.

For adding positions, consider 59.5. This level corresponds to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and the daily 55-day moving average support, and is also a core area of strong support verified by multiple previous tests. Using this as an addition point can effectively optimize the average holding cost.

The stop-loss level is set at 59.0. This is where the previous low and the weekly 20-day moving average converge as support, and it is also a key neckline of the recent upward trend. If the price effectively breaks below this level (closing below this point), it indicates the short-term upward structure has been broken, increasing the risk of trend reversal, and strict stop-loss discipline should be enforced.

Overall, the trading framework is to go long at 60.0, add at 59.5, and set a stop at 59.0, with a target range of 62-64.