On-Chain Selling Pressure Eases and Options Structure Shifts Lay the Foundation for Bitcoin's Upside in 2026

According to the weekly market observation report released by Glassnode, the Bitcoin market has shown a clearer and more positive structural shift this year after experiencing a deep correction at the end of 2025.

After a decisive corrective震荡, short-term holders' realized profits in a single day have significantly decreased from nearly $1 billion at a high, laying the groundwork for Bitcoin's price to reach $94,500 (approximately 8.5%) earlier this month.

However, the current Bitcoin price has entered a dense trading zone dominated by buyers (approximately $92,100 to $117,400). Investors in this range are approaching the breakeven point, which could create new selling pressure. Therefore, breaking through this zone will require time and continued buying absorption.

Thus, the key market recovery signal will depend on whether Bitcoin can sustain above the short-term holder cost basis (around $99,100), which is a critical indicator for determining whether the trend can fully reverse.

Off-chain capital flows also show positive signals. The US Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow has shifted from net outflow to net inflow, indicating institutional demand is returning to the market; meanwhile, open interest in futures contracts has stabilized and rebounded after deleveraging, suggesting derivatives traders are cautiously rebuilding their positions.

Additionally, the large-scale expiration at the end of the year has cleared over 45% of open positions, removing the constraints of old hedging positions. Currently, implied volatility may have bottomed out, and market sentiment is shifting from defensive to bullish positioning, reflected in declining put option premiums and rising demand for call options.

More importantly, the net Gamma of traders in the $95,000 to $104,000 range has turned negative, meaning that as the price rises within this zone, market makers will passively buy spot, thereby reinforcing upward momentum.

In summary, the Bitcoin market has completed a critical reset. The easing of spot selling pressure, the return of institutional funds, the rebuilding of derivatives positions, and the shift in options structure collectively indicate that the market is transitioning from a defensive deleveraging phase to a selective "re-risking" phase. Although resistance above remains to be absorbed, a healthier market structure has been established to support subsequent rallies.

#Glassnode Report