Retail investors and institutions see two different worlds. As Bitcoin rallies, on-chain data shows the emergence of Dogecoin, and the entire network is calling for a push to 100,000. But after analyzing options data, I found that the real factor that determines whether you make money or stand on the sidelines is not 100,000, but 94,000. Most people will exit before this point, and this is precisely the starting point of a breakthrough. What retail investors see: • BTC is only 6% away from 100,000 • ETF net inflow of $1.1 billion • The entire network is calling for a move, so when is the right time to get on? What institutions see: • 94,000 is the "breakthrough point" in the options market • Holding steady at this level forces market makers to buy spot to hedge • If it cannot hold, time decay will suppress the price • Liquidity hits a new low since the end of 2023 Why is 94,000 the real watershed? Look at two sets of data: Data 1: Options positions are concentrated around the 100,000 strike price, with options expiring on January 30. The open interest at the $100,000 strike is $1.45 billion. If BTC cannot stay above 100,000 before the end of January, all these call options will expire worthless. But the key is not 100,000, but 94,000. Why? Because when BTC approaches 94,000, the hedging mechanism of market makers may be triggered: • Break through and stabilize above 94,000 → Market makers may need to buy spot to hedge → Drive the price higher → Possibly accelerate towards 100,000 • Fail to hold above 94,000 → Time decay of options will pressure the price → Market makers may reverse their operations → Price will be under pressure Data 2: Liquidity hits a new low since the end of 2023. The price stays above 90,000, but actual trading volume is extremely low. Order book depth is frighteningly shallow—just a few large orders can break through. This is a double-edged sword: • Breaking above 94,000 will push prices up quickly (possibly to 97,000–98,000 in a day) • Falling below 91,000 will push prices down rapidly (possibly back to 85,000–87,000 in a day) In October 2025, in a low-liquidity environment, BTC plummeted from 126,000 to around 110,000 in a single day, with billions of dollars in liquidation. The current market structure is similar: high-level consolidation + low liquidity + concentrated options positions. Before each critical breakout, the market repeatedly shakes out traders. The most common mistakes retail investors make: • FOMO chasing below key levels • Getting scared out by repeated oscillations • Not daring to chase during genuine breakouts Most people will exit before 94,000. This is not about heavy positioning or waiting on the sidelines. It’s about waiting for confirmation signals: • Break above 94,000 and stay above for more than 3 hours = signal to add positions • Losing 91,000 = reduce positions or stop loss • 97,000 = first take-profit point, sell part of holdings in batches • 100,000 = psychological barrier, decide at that point. $100,000 is not the end; 94,000 is the real watershed. The market won't disappear just because you miss one breakout, but it will keep you on the sidelines if you chase a false breakout.#比特币六连涨 $BTC