2025 Cryptocurrency Market Divergence Intensifies: Bitcoin Strategic Premium Reshaping, Altcoin ETF Fund Flows, Stablecoin Application Expansion

【ChainWen】Latest market research shows that despite the Federal Reserve’s continued liquidity release in December last year, investors’ cautious attitude still put downward pressure on the crypto market. However, a turning point is brewing — as institutional capital continues to deploy, the market positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually consolidating. Entering January, the market’s pessimistic expectations may face correction, as many investors begin to shift back into the crypto space from overvalued asset classes.

Looking at the performance of major asset classes, metals assets shined brightly last year, driven by a trifecta of monetary easing, the AI boom, and the reshaping of commodity pricing weights. Although Bitcoin also benefited from these macroeconomic tailwinds, it lacked the “strategic asset premium” boost, resulting in significant divergence in gains during the fourth quarter. A key transformation is underway: the US is pushing to institutionalize Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, shifting from passive holdings of government seized assets to active procurement, which could align Bitcoin’s valuation logic with that of strategic commodities.

Looking ahead, the policy environment in 2026 is expected to be more accommodative. Tariff pressures, a fragile employment market, and a policy shift toward easing will drive further liquidity injections. Meanwhile, the market demands higher long-term risk premiums to cope with “fiscal dominance” and the upcoming debt pressure exceeding $50 trillion. The steepening of the yield curve actually indicates that the market remains skeptical about a “soft landing” for the Federal Reserve. This creates a unique opportunity window for Bitcoin — to enjoy the short-term flood of cheap liquidity while also benefiting from the erosion of long-term fiat currency credibility.

The story of capital flows is even more interesting. Since its launch, the altcoin ETF has performed remarkably, attracting over $2 billion in net inflows, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other coins are steadily gaining traction. In contrast, since October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, reflecting a deceleration in market momentum and a divergence trend among marginal funds. Although still in early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and ongoing capital absorption could gradually change the liquidity ecosystem, especially if broader market funds accelerate their entry again.

Another phenomenon worth noting is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem. Last year, six newly launched stablecoins surpassed a market cap of $1 billion. As stablecoins are increasingly applied worldwide, their various metrics are becoming a barometer for global financial activity.