Bitcoin today: BTC retreats to US$ 90,000, but three factors could drive a new high in 2026

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin Today: BTC Drops to US$ 90,000, but 3 Factors Could Support a New Rally Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/bitcoin-hoje-btc-cai-para-us-90-mil-mas-3-fatores-podem-sustentar-nova-alta/ Despite the increase recorded at the beginning of the week, on Thursday, Bitcoin faces a 1.9% decline, retreating to US$ 90,040. In reais, BTC is traded at R$ 485,874.

For Bitcoin’s price to return to the levels seen in October of last year and have a chance to initiate a new rally, a stable cryptocurrency market free of major collapses will be necessary.

This is the assessment of Matthew Hougan, investment director at Bitwise, who identified three main catalysts that could boost the leading crypto asset and the market as a whole: a stable cryptocurrency market, a balanced stock market, and the approval of the Clarity Act, a bill regulating the cryptocurrency market in the US.

Stable Crypto and Stock Markets

The first requirement is a stable cryptocurrency market, without a repeat of mass liquidation events like October 10, which resulted in historic liquidations.

According to Hougan, this event was one of the reasons cryptocurrencies struggled to rise in the fourth quarter, as “investors feared that some of these big players might need to shut down operations.” “These possible sales hovered over the market like a dense fog,” the analyst noted, adding that these concerns are now behind us.

The second point is stock market stability. “A sharp decline — for example, a 20% correction in the S&P 500 — would diminish the appeal of all risk assets in the short term, including cryptocurrencies,” Hougan said.

“The stock market needs to stay stable, without spiking or crashing,” said Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research. “Once a certain level of stability is reached, investors will naturally start looking at the cryptocurrency market for higher returns.”

The Legislative Catalyst

The last catalyst is legislative. The approval of the crypto market framework bill, known as the Clarity Act, would represent a significant boost.

The White House crypto advisor has already stated that “we are closer than ever” to passing the bill, and the Senate aims for progress by January 15.

“If the bill advances at this stage, it will be a big step toward approval,” Hougan said. “Without legislation, the current pro-crypto regulatory tilt could be reversed under a new administration. Passing the law would solidify essential principles in legislation and provide a solid foundation for future growth.”

Market Outlook

The short-term trend “will probably be volatile, but with strengthening, driven by specific events,” such as fiscal policy during the Trump administration.

In the medium term, the engine will be institutional, mainly driven by spot ETFs absorbing long-term capital. This period should favor the dynamic of “the strong getting stronger,” improving market efficiency.

For a broader rally, the emergence of a new compelling use case may be necessary, with projects gaining “renewed attention” by seeking practical utility. More mature regulatory frameworks are essential, leading to clearer institutional entry, which will strengthen Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge and strategic allocation asset.