Crypto market cools down while Bitcoin remains within the "death cross" | Analysis

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Cryptocurrency Market Cools While Bitcoin Remains in the “Death Cross” | Analysis Original Link: That brief spike of hope in the crypto market? It’s probably already gone. Bitcoin is trading around US$ 90,600 after a quick surge above US$ 93,000 earlier this week, and the overall crypto market is feeling the chill. The total market capitalization stands at US$ 3.06 trillion — a drop of about US$ 35 billion, or 1.14% — and a quick look at the top 100 coins shows that 80% are underperforming today. Goodbye to the New Year’s resolution rally.

Macroeconomic Outlook

The macroeconomic environment is also not exactly shouting “buy everything.” Traditional markets are showing signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 just finished its third consecutive year of gains above 14%, but analysts warn that the AI-driven party may be running out of champagne. Gold, on the other hand, is performing strongly — up more than 60% in 2025 and heading toward US$ 4,500 per ounce, as investors seek safe assets amid geopolitical tensions and doubts about the sustainability of AI spending.

The entire crypto market has also returned to bearish territory, with US$ 3 trillion in total capitalization. It would be necessary to stay above the US$ 3.2 trillion mark for traders to start talking about a general market recovery.

Institutional Flows and ETFs

But, for the crypto sector, the concern is not just falling prices. It’s what happens when institutional money becomes cautious. Bitcoin ETFs — investment funds tracking the spot price of BTC — recorded inflows of US$ 1.2 billion in the first two days of trading in 2026, including the largest daily flow since October, of US$ 697 million. However, they quickly hit the brakes, with outflows of US$ 243 million on the third day and another US$ 476 million leaving yesterday.

This kind of “whip” effect suggests that institutional interest has returned, but it is fragile.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s technical setup tells the same story. The price is currently trading at US$ 90,673, down about 0.66% on the day, but still up 3% over the past seven days after a strong spike earlier in the week that temporarily pulled prices out of the death cross zone.

The “death cross” — when the 50-day (EMA) exponential moving average crosses below the 200-day EMA — remains in effect, a pattern that typically signals more declines or a prolonged sideways period. With prices now below both averages, the gap between them is likely to widen again, making the emergence of the much-desired “golden cross” — the opposite of the “death cross” — more difficult.

Currently, this gap is very narrow, indicating a balanced struggle between bulls and bears trying to determine the next few months’ direction. With such a tight spread, even if prices remain bearish, the pace of decline should slow compared to a few months ago when Bitcoin started its descent from an all-time high above US$ 126,000.

Technical Indicators

The (ADX) Average Directional Index is at 24.2, slightly below the 25 threshold that confirms a strong trend. The ADX measures trend strength on price charts, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 25 generally indicate a strong ongoing trend. After the spike earlier this week, Bitcoin’s ADX plummeted but is now beginning to rise again, which could mean the current bearish trend is gaining a bit more strength.

The (RSI) Relative Strength Index stands at 52.4, placing Bitcoin firmly in neutral territory. The RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with values above 70 considered overbought and below 30 oversold. With 52, Bitcoin shows no extreme signals in either direction. Traders see this as a market stuck in limbo — not hot enough to chase highs, nor cold enough to panic and sell.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support remains in the US$ 88,000 to US$ 90,000 range, where Bitcoin has found buyers during recent dips. If this level is lost, the next major floor is closer to US$ 80,000 — a level analysts have pointed out as a bottom. On the upside, resistance is concentrated between US$ 94,000 and US$ 97,000. The price briefly touched US$ 94,000 this week but failed to hold, and this level now acts as a psychological barrier that bulls need to reclaim before anyone talks about new highs.

Nonetheless, market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, and traders are not buying into the apocalypse narrative.

Moderate Optimism Persists

Charts are bearish, technical indicators are weak, yet smart money in the markets is not panicking. So, what’s going on?

The answer may lie in time horizons. Short-term technical indicators suggest more sideways volatility or further declines ahead, but long-term structural factors — such as institutional adoption, inflows into spot ETFs, and favorable macroeconomic winds from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts — keep the bullish thesis alive. Analysts expect a correction in the first half of 2026, followed by a rally in the second half, targeting US$ 115,000 by year-end.

If this materializes, it would break the historical pattern, as 2026 would typically align as a crypto winter year in the traditional cycle of a major decline after three years of gains.

For now, however, bulls need to see Bitcoin recover US$ 94,000 convincingly — ideally with the ADX rising above 25 to confirm momentum. Until then, expect more sideways movement, with occasional dips testing support between US$ 88,000 and US$ 89,000. The “death cross” does not guarantee disaster but indicates that easy money has already been made. What comes next depends on whether institutional investors keep showing up — or decide to sit this one out.