#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Hasset on Polymarket rise to 61%, what flashes through my mind is the period around the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, we were still unfamiliar with prediction markets, but now they have become a barometer for Wall Street.

This is worth pondering. The popularity of prediction markets itself indicates something — the market is pricing policy expectations with real money. Hasset advocates for small government and reduced regulation, which presumably means different things for crypto assets. As you all know, the uncertainty in regulation before the 2017 bull run was huge, and now the clarification of policy expectations is more important than ever.

But I have to be honest, this also resembles certain cycles in history. Whenever a new policymaker is about to take office, the market tends to fall into a collective optimism. I’ve seen too many such reversals. The early 2021 cycle, everyone bet that policies would improve, but what happened? The market ultimately had to revert to fundamentals.

A 61% probability from the prediction market sounds very specific, but essentially it’s a consensus game among participants. This number can tell us the current expectation, but it’s uncertain what will happen in three months. The key is whether, when these expectations materialize, the market will react as expected or fall into another collective disillusionment.

History shows us that the most profitable opportunities often lie in the deviations between expectations and reality.