#2026年比特币价格展望 Bitcoin has retreated from the high of $94,000 and is currently oscillating around $91,000. The market sentiment has clearly become more cautious. Short-term fluctuations are bound to test patience, but from a different perspective, the pricing logic for 2026 is becoming increasingly clear—the entire market structure has already changed, with "institutionalization" running throughout the year, an unavoidable trend.

**Can institutions really determine the direction of Bitcoin?**

The current industry consensus points to a core judgment: the previous "four-year halving" cycle narrative for Bitcoin is failing. What is replacing it? The continuous buying power brought by sovereign states, listed company asset allocations, and spot ETFs. These are not short-term speculations but long-term strategic allocations.

Some institutional estimates suggest that by the end of 2026, just institutional capital alone could have purchased over 4.2 million Bitcoins. How significant is this number? It is enough to fundamentally change the entire market’s supply-side logic.

However, there is an interesting divergence: institutions do not agree on how high Bitcoin can ultimately rise.

**Three Possible Futures**

1. The aggressive route—aiming for $250,000. This requires sustained liquidity in the US, continued friendly regulation, and large-scale ETF inflows all working together. If macro policies truly shift to easing, it could indeed trigger a new "super cycle." But honestly, the conditions for this are quite demanding.

2. The cautious route—targeting a range of $100,000 to $160,000. This has the highest probability. Institutional funds enter in an orderly manner, and Bitcoin gradually cements its position as "digital gold," moving upward amid volatility—not aggressive, but also unlikely to disappoint.

3. The conservative route—if macro deterioration or black swan events occur, the market will first test where the support levels are. This is also something to consider.

**Instead of guessing price levels, focus on these three signals**

US CPI data and Federal Reserve interest rate decision paths—these determine the tone of major asset allocations. Weekly fund flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—these directly reflect institutional actions. Key legislative developments like the US "CLARITY Act"—these relate to whether policy expectations can truly materialize.

These three signals are enough to help you understand the true pulse of the market. Compared to guessing how high prices will go every day, they are more instructive. Short-term price anxiety can cloud judgment, but long-term value building is what’s truly happening in this market.