#预测市场 Seeing the changes in Bitcoin forecast data on Polymarket, I think this is the most fascinating aspect of prediction markets!

In just one day, the probability of "Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in December" jumped from 16% directly down to 9%. What does this reflect? It shows that market participants are voting with real money, using incentive mechanisms to express collective judgments about the future. This is the core charm of prediction markets — they are not dictated by any authority, but allow everyone to participate in the game, gradually approaching the truth through price discovery mechanisms.

Imagine in the traditional world, predictions are often made by experts, conveyed by media, and accepted by the public. In decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket, the flow of information is completely different — anyone can bet based on the information they have, buy if they are optimistic, sell if they are pessimistic, ultimately forming a dynamic and honest market price. This fully activates the collective wisdom of humanity.

Moreover, look at these real-time data updates themselves tell a story. Every change in Bitcoin's recent trend can trigger adjustments in market expectations. This transparency and real-time nature are unimaginable in traditional finance.

Prediction markets represent an important vision of Web3 — through decentralized, incentive-compatible design, enabling more efficient flow of information and making decision-making more democratic. In the future, such applications will become more and more prevalent, changing the way we forecast and make decisions.