Behind the Shanghai Composite's ten-year high: 13 consecutive gains, increased trading volume, and the risks of chasing high at elevated levels

The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,100 points intraday, reaching a new high since late July 2015, returning to this critical level after 10 years. Along with 13 consecutive trading days of gains and a total market turnover surpassing 2.8 trillion yuan, the profitability effect in the A-share market is indeed hot. However, the upward movement at high levels also accumulates many risks that need to be vigilant about.

What Does the Unseen High Point in Ten Years Mean

The number 4,100 has special significance for A-share investors. The last time the Shanghai Index hovered at this level was in mid-2015, exactly 10 years ago. This is not just a numerical breakthrough but also reflects the turbulent decade the A-share market has experienced—from the 2015 stock crash, to subsequent deleveraging, and more recently, structural行情.

From a technical perspective, breaking through a ten-year high indicates that the index has successfully crossed an important psychological threshold. Relevant news shows that the Shanghai Index rose nearly 0.6% intraday, and the ChiNext Index also surpassed 3,300 points. The two main board indices have already led the突破去年高点. Such突破 often releases more bullish sentiment.

The Reality Behind Continuous Gains and Volume

The data looks impressive: 13 consecutive days of gains setting a historical record, trading volume expanding to over 2.8 trillion yuan, 4,100 stocks rising, and over 100 stocks hitting daily涨停. But these figures require rational interpretation behind them.

Hotspot rotation vs. broad涨

The market presents a pattern of “non-bank权重 leading, thematic stocks taking turns.” Sectors like brain-machine interfaces, commercial aerospace, chips and semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and autonomous driving take turns leading. Although this rotation creates an illusion of broad涨, it actually reflects capital switching between different sectors—some stocks surge significantly, while others fall on the losers榜.

According to the latest news, even in a broad涨 environment, many stocks on the跌幅榜 have fallen sharply, including some previously热门股. This indicates that market segmentation is already quite evident, and not all涨都能赚钱.

Concerns about volume

While a trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan seems sufficient, analysis of related information suggests that such massive volume expansion often signals strong divergence ahead. Once the market accelerates with increased volume, historical经验 shows that “post高潮的不适” will soon follow.

Several Issues to Watch in the Current Market

From a market perspective, several signals warrant注意:

First, 13 consecutive涨停板 is a历史纪录, often indicating a破局. Relevant news clearly states “急涨之后有急跌，急涨不是上车机会，急跌才是” (Rapid rise is followed by rapid fall; the former is not a good entry point, the latter is).

Second, although over 4,100 stocks are上涨, this does not mean everyone is赚钱. Many are rebounds of previously超跌 stocks, and the real增量机会 are often in stocks that suddenly爆发—yet these stocks often miss the best entry时机.

Third, sector rotation is active, but the持续性 of each sector needs观察. Brain-machine interfaces, commercial aerospace, chips, etc., are based on specific catalysts (such as Musk’s Neuralink mass production, Blue Arrow Aerospace IPO). Once these catalysts materialize,热度可能会快速冷却.

Future Directions Worth关注

While risks need警惕, some structural opportunities still exist. Relevant news mentions that超跌的消费板块经过三年的调整后，反弹潜力值得期待。白酒、食品等板块涨幅有限，但有补涨预期。同时，大消费、保险、证券、医药、光伏等过去一年滞涨的方向，在A股整体上行背景下也具有配置价值。

但关键是要区分"有潜力"和"现在适合上车"。高位时期，性价比尤为重要——既要看板块是否有空间，也要看是否有合适的入场机会。

总结

沪指突破4100点确实具有历史意义，标志着A股走出了过去几年的调整。但从13连阳、2.8万亿成交量、热点轮动分化这些现象看，市场已进入一个需要谨慎的阶段。

核心要点是：这不是一个"普涨就能都赚钱"的行情，而是一个"选择比努力更重要"的时期。盲目追高风险大，但完全错过也不是办法。关键是等待调整出现更好的机会，而不是在高位被FOMO情绪裹挟。A股还是那个A股，急涨之后的调整往往比上涨的机会更值得把握。