2026-01-09 02:50:33

Non-farm payrolls speak volumes! The US unemployment rate is approaching 4.7%. Is an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the year still far off?

Friday’s non-farm report is the anchor of this week. Citigroup’s latest warning hits hard—if the unemployment rate really jumps to 4.7% in December, the Fed might be forced to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in January.

They say "no rush," but employment data is already screaming. Job gains have nearly stalled, initial jobless claims are declining, and hiring indices are weak... These signals point in one direction: the labor market is cooling. Citigroup expects only 75,000 new jobs in December, a figure close to flatlining.

The Fed has already moved 75 basis points in 2025, and the story of rate cuts in 2026 might be even more aggressive. The market is currently pricing in 60 basis points, but Citigroup’s baseline forecast is 75 basis points, possibly exceeding 100. Oil prices are at the bottom, service sector inflation is struggling to rebound, and the macro environment indeed gives the green light for rate cuts.

All hinges on this Friday. After the non-farm data is released, can we re-enter the era of rate cuts? Stay tuned.

BTC-0,3%

XRP-2,61%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ShibaOnTheRun

· 12h ago

Citibank is stirring up anxiety again; the expectation of interest rate cuts changes every week... With the non-farm payrolls on Friday, gamblers should be on edge.

View OriginalReply0

DAOTruant

· 01-11 11:32

The expectation of interest rate cuts is so strong... It's really just the Fed being forced to lower rates.

View OriginalReply0

YieldHunter

· 01-11 02:41

if you look at the data, 7.5k jobs added is basically the fed waving a white flag. but ngl the market's only pricing 60bps when citi's talking 75+? that's either complacency or someone's sleeping at the wheel. technically speaking we've been here before and retail always gets liquidated on the relief rally lol

Reply0

StableNomad

· 01-09 03:19

ngl, 75bps pricing in already feels premature... reminds me of UST in May when everyone was calling the bottom. Friday's gonna be brutal either way tbh

Reply0

NFTArchaeologis

· 01-09 03:16

The labor market records are being rewritten... If this data truly hits rock bottom, the revaluation of on-chain assets might begin. It's a bit like the early digital art market, waiting for genuine pricing power to return.

View OriginalReply0

CounterIndicator

· 01-09 03:14

Citibank is once again making a splash, 75 basis points? I bet the Federal Reserve will ultimately relent, with a maximum of 50 basis points in the end.

View OriginalReply0

screenshot_gains

· 01-09 03:11

Can we really trust Citigroup's latest prediction? It seems like they always say "maybe." With interest rate cuts coming, BTC still depends on macro factors. Don't be fooled by these expectations. If Friday's data really hits 75,000, then we need to be cautious. Wait, the market is pricing in 60, but Citigroup says 75? There's a story behind this gap. The employment market is so cold, should I keep holding, or is it time to step back and take a breather?

View OriginalReply0

SybilAttackVictim

· 01-09 03:07

Wait, with such poor employment data, can they really cut interest rates? It feels like the macro logic is reversed...

View OriginalReply0

ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-09 03:00

The expectation of interest rate cuts is back again. This time, is the wolf really coming... We need to watch the non-farm payrolls on Friday carefully.

View OriginalReply0