BTC repeatedly fluctuates around $91,000. Can policy favorable factors offset leverage risks?

Bitcoin hovers around $91,000 today. As of press time, it is at $90,994.47, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.18%. Although market capitalization remains stable at $1.82 trillion, internal market divergence is intensifying: on one side, the long-term support provided by the U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve Program; on the other, the rising risks of futures leverage. Short-term technical indicators are under pressure, but policy prospects remain positive. This contradiction reflects the current real state of the Bitcoin market.

Price Volatility and Market Status

Looking at the 24-hour fluctuations, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility today. The highest price reached $94,762.07, while the lowest dropped to $89,233.88, with an amplitude of over $5,500. This sharp fluctuation indicates differing market opinions on the direction of prices.

Key Data Overview

From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has risen 2.64% over the past 7 days but declined 1.51% over the past 30 days, showing a coexistence of short-term rebound and medium-term correction.

Market Sentiment Divergence and Risk Hidden Dangers

Contradictory signals from sentiment indicators

According to the latest news, the crypto market’s fear index has fallen to 27, indicating a “fear” state. This usually suggests low market participant sentiment. However, JPMorgan’s analysis points out that the market’s “de-risking” process may be nearing its end, with ETF capital flows showing signs of stabilization, and futures market positioning indicators suggest that traders have largely finished reducing their positions.

This seems like a positive signal, but the problem is—although market sentiment is no longer extremely fearful, new risks are accumulating.

Rising leverage as a hidden danger

Derivatives data shows that the total open interest in Bitcoin futures and options has risen to nearly 700,000 BTC, a three-week high. The perpetual futures funding rate remains around 0.09%, indicating traders are continuously using leverage to buy on dips.

What does this mean? When prices experience rapid corrections, these high-leverage long positions face liquidation risks, potentially triggering chain reactions of forced liquidations. According to options market data, the maximum pain point for options expiring on January 17 is at $90,000, with a large volume of put options below $85,000. These are potential risk triggers.

Long-term Policy Support Logic

Despite short-term technical pressures, policy support remains noteworthy.

According to related news, the U.S. government’s National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan is advancing further, with an initial goal of holding 1 million BTC. Although currently mainly relying on law enforcement confiscations, in the future, the government may start directly purchasing Bitcoin to bolster reserves. This policy framework creates a long-term institutional demand for Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, states like Florida are also promoting state-level Bitcoin reserve plans, forming a top-down policy support system. This recognition at the policy level lays a foundation for long-term demand for Bitcoin.

Technical Pressure and Market Expectation Divergence

Bitcoin faces clear technical challenges:

• Rebounded from testing the $89,200 support level to around $90,500
• Encountered resistance at the critical $95,000 level
• Formed a three-day pattern of decline

Market expectations are also diverging significantly. According to Polymarket predictions, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January has fallen to 29%, while some analysts remain bearish, expecting a drop to $76,000. This huge difference in expectations reflects market uncertainty about the future direction.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently in a typical “policy bullishness vs. technical pressure” standoff. In the short term, the market should focus on two key risks: first, the rising futures leverage ratio may trigger forced liquidations during price corrections; second, technical resistance at $95,000 and support levels below are under testing.

But from a medium- to long-term perspective, policies like the U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve Plan provide new demand foundations. The key question is whether short-term leverage risks and technical adjustments can be absorbed under policy support, rather than evolving into larger corrections.

For market participants, the most important thing now is to recognize the risks—not just the policy positives, but the high leverage positions accumulating in the market. Any rapid price movement could trigger chain reactions, which is a critical point to monitor.