#密码资产动态追踪 The Federal Reserve's sudden release of the 2026 interest rate cut plan (expected 150 basis points) appears on the surface to be a policy roadmap, but in reality, it resembles a "game of uncertainty" in the financial markets. The core issue is—internal divisions within the central bank have reached their highest level since 2019, with hawks and doves clashing openly (there were three dissenting votes at the December meeting alone).

**Who will benefit from a rate cut?**

Tech stocks are the immediate beneficiaries. The "Big Seven" tech giants achieved an 18.4% earnings growth in Q3 2025. Although their valuations are high, profits support them, and once rate cut expectations materialize, there is still room for valuation reconfiguration for these companies. Also, don't forget gold—historical data repeatedly shows that during rate cut cycles, gold almost never misses an upward move.

**But the traps are also obvious.**

The Fed is caught in a "triangle trap": it must maintain employment, control inflation, and preserve its independence. This means policies could reverse at any time. More painfully, if a rate cut coincides with an economic recession, historical data indicates that the stock market typically declines over the following 12 months.

**So what should you do now?**

It depends on whether you're a "gambler" or a "cautious investor." Early positioning requires accepting policy swings but could capture valuation recovery benefits; waiting for the official rate cut to start and for a soft landing confirmation offers higher safety but risks missing out. The key is to understand how much volatility you can endure and how long your capital lock-in period is—that determines which path you should choose.