January 9, 2026, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be released. As a global financial market indicator, these two sets of data often trigger chain reactions in forex, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies.

**Non-farm Payrolls: Can the Recovery Hold?**

Currently expected to increase by 60,000 jobs, compared to 64,000 last month. Looking back at the entire 2025, the US labor market experienced some turbulence — after mid-year, there was a "bottoming out and rebound" trend, with even single-month negative growth in Q4, followed by a quick rebound back to the 60,000 level. What does this indicate? The job market still shows resilience amid the economic slowdown; it hasn't completely collapsed. If the actual data exceeds expectations, the story of a "soft landing" becomes more solid; but if it falls short, the market may start to worry that a wave of unemployment is truly coming.

**Unemployment Rate: Continual Rise from Low Levels**

Expected at 4.50%, previous value was 4.60%. There is a story behind this number — from around 4.0% in early 2025, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% in November last year, indicating the labor market is gradually loosening. If the unemployment rate falls back to 4.5% as expected, it could at least dispel some market panic; but if it continues to rise, we need to seriously consider worsening employment conditions.

Economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations are all colliding, and the short-term market pricing logic is likely to recalibrate at this point.