Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December Non-Farm Payrolls report—2026's first major macroeconomic data point. Market expectations are for 60,000 new jobs (previously 64,000), with the unemployment rate expected at 4.50% (previously 4.60%). These figures may seem dull, but they are actually crucial for the Federal Reserve's next policy move and directly impact global risk asset pricing.

The most intriguing aspect is the recent power struggle. Treasury Secretary Yellen recently issued an emergency statement to the Fed, claiming that rate cuts are "the only factor missing for strong economic growth." The implication is clear—political leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the current interest rate policy. Will tonight's data become her "cannon" to exert pressure? It's a question worth pondering.

**Core Contradictions Facing the Market**

First, what does the continued slowdown in non-farm payrolls really imply? Does a cooling labor market signal recession risks? Or is it just a cyclical adjustment? Second, the slight decline in the unemployment rate may be a statistical trap—such a decrease could reflect a drop in labor force participation rather than genuine job market strength. Furthermore, the probability of a rate cut in March is highly sensitive; even minor data surprises can trigger sharp market expectations swings.

If tonight's data is weak, markets may reinforce expectations of an imminent rate cut, boosting risk appetite. Historical experience shows that non-farm payrolls often trigger short-term volatility in the dollar and risk assets. For the crypto market, heightened rate cut expectations generally favor the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conversely, if the data surprises strongly on the upside, can the Fed withstand political pressure and maintain a hawkish stance? This will test the Fed's independence.

**Deeper Context**

The Trump administration has high hopes for the "America First" economic agenda, but what kind of labor market is needed to support it? Sustained strong job creation or a moderate slowdown to pave the way for rate cuts? This report could serve as the first signal of the 2026 economic policy direction.

From a crypto market perspective, after tonight's data release, the interaction between dollar strength or weakness, risk sentiment, and rate cut expectations will reshape the short-term landscape. It is advisable to closely monitor the immediate market reactions—these often fully reflect market expectations within 15-30 minutes.

**What do you think?** Do you expect this report to reinforce the "hawk" or "dove" voices? Is it the "starting gun" or the "warning bell" for the crypto market?