The latest CME Fed Funds futures data reflect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The probability of holding interest rates steady in January is as high as 86.2%, while the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 13.8%. However, looking further into the future, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by the end of March rises to 38.0%, though the probability of maintaining the current rate level remains dominant at 57.4%. The likelihood of a larger cut (50 basis points) is relatively small at only 4.6%.

From this data, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve's policy tone is relatively stable in the short term, but market expectations for rate cuts in the coming months are gradually increasing. The driving forces behind this cannot be ignored—global geopolitical tensions, rising political risks, and pressure on the US credit environment. Against this backdrop, risk assets are under pressure, and the responses of central banks around the world are quietly changing.

Interestingly, at a time when economic uncertainty is intensifying and the credibility of fiat currencies is being questioned, gold is becoming the primary choice for diversification of national reserves. An increasing number of countries are increasing their gold holdings in foreign exchange reserves, which is not only a re-evaluation of traditional safe-haven assets but also a reflection of concerns about the future global financial landscape. This trend is likely to support gold's continued upward movement, creating long-term upward momentum.