Recently, corporate layoffs have been frequent, with the number of layoffs increasing by 58%, creating a new high in five years. The biggest impact has been on the federal government and the technology sector, driven by AI applications and cost pressures.

Interestingly, the other side of the data shows that labor productivity growth in the third quarter broke a two-year ceiling. In other words, even with fewer employees, output has increased. Economists call this phenomenon "jobless expansion," which sounds a bit harsh but indeed reflects the current reality.

This has put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: on one hand, signals of weak employment, and on the other, inflation still persists. The probability of a significant rate cut in the short term is low, but there is still room for easing in the medium to long term, which the market generally agrees on.

Back to gold. As an asset that pays neither interest nor dividends, it naturally has an advantage in a low-interest-rate environment. If non-farm payroll data continues to weaken, expectations for rate cuts will strengthen, and gold prices may see a good rally. Conversely, if the data unexpectedly improves, short-term volatility and corrections should be anticipated.