#以太坊大户持仓变化 【0109 Market Brief】Is it a Shakeout or an Opportunity? Divergence Between Bulls and Bears

Today’s panic index soared to 41, and market sentiment is indeed a bit tense. After the initial jobless claims data was released, the Fed’s probability of cutting interest rates in January suddenly dropped to 11.6%, and short-term liquidity is beginning to tighten, dampening many investors’ buying enthusiasm.

But this is not the full picture. Looking on the bright side, the advancement of Florida HB 1039 has opened up imagination for sovereign-level funds to enter; institutions are also not idle, with Bitmine directly pledging $176 million worth of ETH, and trading volume of stablecoins hitting a new high. Honestly, the support in the market is still there.

**$BTC’s Rhythm**

Yesterday morning, around 91,000, there was repeated tug-of-war, and the daily chart has been declining for three days. From the 4-hour perspective, although the moving averages have formed a death cross, the downward momentum is shrinking — indicating that there are quite a few buyers stepping in between 90,000 and 90,800. Open interest remains high, and both bulls and bears are reluctant to give in, likely leading to quick “pin” type fluctuations.

As long as the 90,200 support level holds, the overall logic remains a normal correction in the upward trend. Short-term resistance is at 92,500, and a confirmed reversal will only be established once it stabilizes above 94,500.

**$ETH’s Challenge**

In contrast, Ethereum appears somewhat sluggish, following Bitcoin’s lead, hovering around 3,115, with Bollinger Bands opening downward. Although Bitmine’s large pledge is a positive sign, unfortunately, the market lacks synergy, and funds are somewhat scattered.

Recent support has shifted down to 3,050. If Bitcoin can truly stabilize, Ethereum might have a chance to build a local double bottom around 3,080 to 3,100. In terms of operation, it’s still recommended to wait for confirmation of signals on the right side before taking action. Don’t rush to buy the dip. The resistance level to watch above is 3,200.

**Tonight’s Key Turning Point**

The non-farm payrolls data will be released tonight, and this is the most critical point for a market reversal today. If the data exceeds expectations and is strong, the expectation of rate cuts will be further suppressed. Also, pay attention to Tether’s new concept of a gold-backed stablecoin; the RWA sector has seen quite a few recent developments. The legislation in Florida is also a potential major positive recently, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

$SOL