2026-01-09 03:30:47

#密码资产动态追踪【Market Log】Is it a shakeout or a trend reversal? The key depends on support and non-farm payrolls

The panic index has surged to 41. After the initial jobless claims data was released, the Fed's probability of rate cuts in January plummeted to 11.6%. Liquidity has indeed tightened, and market enthusiasm for bullish positions has been somewhat dampened. But on the other hand, don’t be too pessimistic—Florida’s HB 1039 bill is progressing, and the expectation for sovereign-level buy orders is heating up; institutions are also active, with a leading mining company pledging another $176 million worth of ETH, and trading volume of stablecoins hitting new highs. The fundamentals still support the market.

Looking at $BTC, it was oscillating around the 91,000 level in the early session, with the daily chart already adjusting for three days. The 4-hour moving averages show a death cross, but the selling volume is shrinking, indicating that there are still buyers in the 90,000-90,800 range. Open interest remains high, and the bulls and bears are fiercely contesting, likely leading to a quick spike in volatility. My view is that as long as the 90,200 support level is not effectively broken, the overall trend remains a normal shakeout within an upward trend. Short-term resistance is at 92,500, and a confirmed end to the correction requires a break above 94,500.

Looking at $ETH, it is still weakly correlated with Bitcoin, hovering around 3,115, with Bollinger Bands opening downward. Although there is positive news about large pledges, the market lacks collective momentum. Short-term support has moved down to 3,050. If Bitcoin stabilizes, ETH may form a small double bottom between 3,080 and 3,100. The trading strategy is to wait patiently for signals on the right side; avoid rushing to buy the dip, and watch out for resistance at 3,200.

Tonight’s non-farm payroll data is a critical turning point. If the data is strong, it will further reduce expectations for rate cuts. Also, pay attention to the launch of a gold-backed stablecoin concept and developments in the RWA sector. The legislation in Florida is also a potential positive signal recently, worth continuous monitoring.

ETH1,34%

BTC0,79%

RWA-1,49%

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 4h ago

If 90200 is not broken, I will still hold. The shakeout at this point is just to profit from retail investors' psychological fees. Who dares to move before the non-farm payroll data is released? Tonight, either it takes off or it plunges. The recent positive news about staking hasn't boosted the market, indicating that institutions are also waiting for a signal. Bottom fishing is a foolish act; wait for the right side to decide. If the Florida proposal really passes, that will be the true turning point. Keep the 3050 support well, or ETH will have to break it again. The probability of rate cuts dropping to 11.6%—what's the big deal? The Federal Reserve has been playing this game for a year.

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RugResistant

· 6h ago

If 90200 can't be broken, I think it can still hold, just worried that the non-farm payrolls might surprise us again.

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CryptoTarotReader

· 6h ago

If you can't hold 90200, you have to admit defeat. Now it's all about whether the non-farm payrolls can save the day.

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GhostInTheChain

· 01-09 04:00

The night before non-farm payrolls is still fluctuating. If 90200 can't be broken, hold on. What are you afraid of? --- $176 million worth of ETH staked. Institutions are so aggressive yet still falling. We’ll see how tonight’s data looks. --- Basically, just waiting for non-farm payrolls; everything else is noise. --- The Bollinger Bands are opening downward... This rhythm is familiar, another quick dip might be coming. Set your stop-loss. --- If the Florida proposal really passes, sovereign buying will be the real show, more useful than the fear index at 41. --- As long as the 3050 support holds, ETH’s double bottom could turn around, but we need to wait for signals from the market.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 01-09 04:00

This defensive line at 90200 must be held, or else the market will really change direction.

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GasWhisperer

· 01-09 03:59

honestly the mempool's been wild today... fear index at 41 feels like everyone forgot how to time entries lol. non-farm tonight could flip the whole narrative but ngl i'm more interested in tracking where the actual buy pressure sits. 90200 acting stubborn af, classic support theater... either way someone's gonna pay premium gwei for this move fr

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GateUser-c802f0e8

· 01-09 03:59

If we can't hold the 90200 level, we're in danger. Tonight's non-farm payroll data really controls the entire situation.

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APY追逐者

· 01-09 03:55

Has 90200 been broken? This is the real watershed; don't be blinded by those positive news. If the non-farm payrolls are strong tonight, we might have to go through another round of washout. Still waiting for the right-side signal? I think you're waiting for a signal to cut losses, haha. The 1.76 billion ETH staked is indeed stable, but the market lacks synergy, and that's the real issue. Dare not to buy the dip, and regret it when it rises—that's my daily routine.

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ZKSherlock

· 01-09 03:49

actually the nonfarm data is gonna be the real test here, not all this technical handwaving about support levels and bollinger bands... people keep talking about capitulation when really what we're seeing is just institutional price discovery with questionable assumptions baked in

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