#2026年比特币价格展望 【Monday Market Brief】Consolidation confirmed, holding support is key

The fear index skyrocketed to 41. Honestly, as soon as the initial jobless claims data was released, the Fed's probability of rate cuts in January dropped directly to 11.6%, and market liquidity instantly tightened. Many people started to tighten their wallets. However, from another perspective, there are actually quite a few positives—Florida HB 1039 proposal is progressing, institutional sovereign-level buy orders are heating up expectations; Bitmine has invested another $176 million in ETH staking, and stablecoin trading volume hit a new high. The fundamentals still have some backing.

First, look at $BTC performance. This morning, it oscillated around the 91,000 level, with the daily chart already pulling back for three days. From the 4-hour chart, although the moving averages have a death cross, the downward momentum is clearly shrinking, indicating that there are quite a few support orders in the 90,000-90,800 range. Open interest remains high in this zone, with a clear battle between bulls and bears, likely leading to a "pinning" maneuver. As long as the support above 91,000 at 90,200 is not effectively broken, it is essentially a normal shakeout during an upward trend. The short-term resistance to watch is 92,500; only when it can firmly stand above 94,500 will the correction be considered over.

Next, $ETH continues to move in tandem with $BTC, fluctuating around 3,115, with Bollinger Bands opening downward. Bitmine's large staking is indeed positive, but the market funds are still somewhat scattered, lacking cohesion. Short-term support has fallen to 3,050. If the overall market can stabilize, ETH may have a chance to build a local double bottom in the 3,080-3,100 range. In terms of operation, it is still recommended to wait for signals on the right side; don’t rush to buy the dip. Resistance above is at 3,200.

Tonight’s non-farm payroll data will be a turning point. If the data shows strong performance, it will further dampen market expectations for rate cuts. Also, keep an eye on Tether’s gold stablecoin actions and developments in the RWA sector. Recent legislation in Florida could also bring significant positive news—these are all worth continuous monitoring.

Reminder: Don’t ignore the trend of $SOL.