#美联储政策 GDP growth rate of 4%, booming AI productivity, yet US Treasury yields hover around 4.16%—this mismatch warrants attention.

Latest data shows traders are heavily betting on the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to 4%, with open interest in options increasing by 300% to 170,000 contracts within a week, and premiums reaching $80 million. The underlying logic is clear: strong economic fundamentals, but the Federal Reserve’s rate cut policy is relatively lagging, and the market is pricing in expectations of rising yields in advance.

Key points to observe: First, Hasset’s statement—that good GDP data combined with an upward AI industry cycle—will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s rationale for maintaining high interest rates; second, the true market reaction—large institutional positioning in bullish US Treasury options indicates a consensus expectation has formed.

The impact on on-chain assets should not be underestimated. Rising US Treasury yields typically suppress risk asset inflows, and the movements of whale wallets are especially worth tracking during this period. Recent focus should be on whether large funds are fleeing at high levels or institutions are quietly accumulating at the bottom—these are often early signals of a market turning point.