2026-01-09 03:46:25

Everyone in the crypto world knows a simple truth: when there are disagreements, it's often the best time to get on board; the moment consensus appears, it's usually time to exit.

It sounds simple, but few can really do it. Most people get caught not because they can't understand the trends, but because they are hijacked by public opinion—by the time everyone is shouting "rise, rise, rise," 90% of the profit opportunities have already been taken. Conversely, when the market is unanimously bearish, that's often the most covert window for building positions.

Why? Because disagreement means the chips are still in retail hands, and there’s still room for price imagination; when consensus emerges, big players have already secured their chips and exited, waiting for the last wave of retail investors to take the bait.

To put it bluntly, getting scolded isn’t really a big deal—what matters is whether your account holds real money. Every time you go against the trend, you'll face ridicule, but when the market turns around, all those doubts will seem cheap.

So the final realization is: don’t be swayed by emotions; data and logic are the only true compass.

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MercilessHalal

· 15h ago

You're right, the real question is how many can truly endure the period of being mocked by the crowd. Contrarian building positions is the most torturous, watching others go all-in and still laughing at you for being naive. Wait, how did I hear this sentence last year... and what about the person who said it last time? The key is having bullets; without money, there's no talk of divergence windows. This theory sounds great, but most people are actually doing it because they lack money, not because they have discipline. The ones who are truly making money are now silent; only those losing money are summarizing their experiences. I'm asking, how much real cash do you have in your account to support this logic? Don't be swayed by public opinion, but how do you know you're not being influenced by another set of opinions right now? Who dares to step up during disagreements? The psychological barrier is much harder than the technical one.

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GmGmNoGn

· 01-09 19:00

That's right, but this set of theories is an easy way to comfort oneself when getting chopped up by the market; during disagreements, everyone thinks they're bottoming out. Counter-trend trading is correct, but only if you can distinguish between real disagreements and fake ones. The most dangerous situation is when everyone is unanimously bearish, as large investors often quietly sell off their holdings at this time. Wait, isn't this logic also being played out by us retail investors? Those who truly understand the consensus wouldn't be here chatting; they're counting their money.

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0xSleepDeprived

· 01-09 04:15

That's right, but my current problem is that I have no courage to go against the trend... Really, every time I get bearish, I hesitate, and as a result, I miss wave after wave. I've been listening to this theory for three years, and my account is still so miserable. Wait, am I the opposite example of the "few" people?

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-09 04:14

Based on on-chain data retrospection, the figure of 90% is actually quite conservative. It is worth noting that during the five-day window with the greatest sentiment divergence, it is often possible to capture more than three times the return opportunity. But the problem is that most retail investors simply cannot resist the destruction caused by herd psychology — this is the real risk.

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AirdropNinja

· 01-09 04:12

It's the same theory again, saying it nicely but the ones who suffer the most in execution. What they're saying this time isn't wrong, but the problem is who can really avoid being manipulated by public opinion. It's easier said than done. The ones who go against the trend every day are actually the ones who make the most money, I believe that.

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AirdropChaser

· 01-09 04:09

Really, there's nothing wrong with what you said, but I looked at my account balance and chose to continue bottom-fishing and losing money. To put it simply, the hardest part of contrarian trading is not judgment, but psychological resilience. When the group is all green and you're still buying, that mindset is not something most people can handle. Every time I think I've understood it, I end up following the trend in the next round, repeating the cycle of being a leek (chives) in the endless farming life. The data logic is correct, but the execution is a bit lacking. I am that 90%. Understanding this principle and actually doing it are separated by just one wallet.

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