2026-01-09 03:50:31

#密码资产动态追踪 Gold Market Quick Review: Breakthrough 4500 or Continue to Oscillate? Non-Farm Payrolls to Decide!

After opening yesterday, gold prices steadily declined, and this morning rebounded to around 4484 before encountering resistance. At this level, decisively shorted, successfully gaining 30 points, which fully met expectations.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Board member Milani expressed support for a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026, a dovish signal that directly pushed gold higher. International spot gold responded with a rise of over $20, up 0.48%. It’s clear how sensitive the market is to rate cut expectations.

Currently, all eyes are on the upcoming non-farm payroll data release today—this data will largely determine the short-term direction of gold prices. At the same time, attention is also on the final ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding Trump’s tariffs policy, which could come as early as Friday. If the court rules it legal, gold will receive bullish support; conversely, if deemed illegal, it may cause short-term pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, after this morning’s rally, spot gold entered a high-level pullback and correction phase, completing a V-shaped reversal and entering a consolidation stage. The bulls have not launched a fierce attack for now, but the buying support below is solid, indicating a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears. We need to wait for the data to determine the next direction.

On the daily chart, the long lower shadow indicates good support below, and the price has stabilized above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The key resistance zone is between 4490-4500 USD—whether it can be effectively broken is crucial. Recent support levels are at 4440-4445 USD, with an important support zone at 4415-4423 USD below.

It is expected that after the non-farm payroll data is released, the market will choose a breakout direction, with overall movement within the 4415-4490 USD range. For range trading, it’s important to buy low and sell high, avoid greed-driven chasing of rallies or panic selling, and prioritize risk control.

Strategy reference: Focus on buying around 4440-4445, add positions between 4415-4423, with a stop-loss near 4403. Target the 4468-4478 zone, and if broken, aim for 4500-4510. $XAU $BTC $ETH

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FallingLeaf

· 01-09 05:07

Non-farm payrolls are coming. Will this wave really break 4500? It still seems to depend on the data. It moved 30 points and then left. The courage is really something. This wave of bulls and bears is indeed stalemated, hard to judge. Let's wait for the data. The court ruling on tariffs is also crucial. Feels like there are too many variables. Selling high and buying low sounds simple, but in practice, my hands are really trembling.

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quietly_staking

· 01-09 04:17

Non-farm data is the real stabilizer; everything else is just floating clouds... I am optimistic about the 4440 level; if it breaks, it will head straight to 4500.

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DaoResearcher

· 01-09 04:15

According to the market microstructure model in the white paper, the release of this non-farm payroll data is essentially a re-pricing process of an asymmetric information game. It is worth noting that the 4415-4490 range provided by the author actually implies a hypothesis—market participants' rational expectations are perfectly aligned, but on-chain data indicates that this hypothesis does not hold within the 95% confidence interval.

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MagicBean

· 01-09 04:14

Non-farm data is crucial. It feels like gold prices will still fluctuate between 4440 and 4500 this time. Just don't be too greedy.

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0xLostKey

· 01-09 04:08

Once the non-farm data is released, everyone will know. It's just a gamble now to see who guesses correctly... 30 points is pretty good. I directly held against it the day before yesterday, haha.

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MEVHunterWang

· 01-09 04:05

Non-farm data is the real show; anything said now is just pointless...

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PebbleHander

· 01-09 04:04

At this critical moment of non-farm payrolls, who dares to chase the high... Let's wait for the data to speak. The defense around 4440 is too solid, making it easy to get trapped.

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