#比特币价格预测与分析 Seeing this report from VanEck, my first reaction is: the data indeed supports the rebound expectation. The 4% drop in hash rate is the largest since April, and historically, a compression period in hash rate has a 65% chance of positive returns within 90 days—this win rate is already quite high for professional trading.

However, there's a detail worth pondering: the expectation of a rebound does not guarantee a sharp surge. James Wynn's projection from "doubling to 175,000" directly shrinking to "at least a 10% rebound" indicates that market expectations are adjusting. My understanding is that the decline in mining activity indeed releases bullish technical signals, but the strength should be somewhat discounted.

From a follow-trade perspective, the current opportunity lies in discerning how traders view this type of rebound: aggressive traders will chase the rally to try to capture the entire wave, while conservative traders will wait for a pullback to support levels before entering. I tend to track accounts with clear stop-loss settings, as a rebound isn't necessarily a straight upward move, and the risk of retracement must also be considered.

The logic of the hash rate cycle can become one of my filtering criteria for follow-trades, but it is certainly not the only reason. Practice has shown me that even the most beautiful signals from a single technical indicator need to be validated with market sentiment and liquidity conditions. Now is a good time for observation.