#密码资产动态追踪 Seven years of trading experience, from an initial capital of 50,000 to over 50 million, my secret is actually very simple—maintain 50% position size steadily, with monthly returns generally around 70%. I’ve taught this logic to a few apprentices, and some doubled their capital in just three months. Instead of hiding or concealing these insights, I’d rather openly share these experiences.

**Fund management is the lifeline.** I habitually divide my funds into 5 parts, investing only 1/5 each time. Set stop-loss at 10 points, with a single loss not exceeding 2% of total capital. Even if I make 5 consecutive wrong trades, I only lose at most 10%. Take profit is set at 10 points or more. The benefit of this approach is that it’s almost impossible to get deeply trapped.

**In the face of trends, beginners are most likely to get wrecked.** Many people can’t distinguish what is a true breakout and what is a trap to lure more buyers. Rebounds in a downtrend are often manipulations by big players accumulating positions; real opportunities are in pullbacks during an uptrend. Buying low always has a higher success rate than bottom-fishing—this is a painful lesson.

**Short-term explosive coins are big traps.** Whether mainstream or altcoins, those capable of multiple major upward waves are rare. After a short-term surge, continuing to rise becomes exponentially harder. When a coin stalls at high levels, it’s usually the start of a decline. Everyone understands this principle, but some still gamble, and the results are predictable.

**MACD, moving averages, volume and price—these three are enough.** When the DIF and DEA lines form a golden cross below the zero line and break above zero, it’s a solid entry signal. When a death cross occurs above zero, quickly reduce your position without hesitation. Volume and price are core logic in the crypto world; a volume breakout after consolidation at low levels is worth noting, while high-volume stagnation at top levels signals it’s time to exit.

**Averaging down is a nightmare for retail investors.** The story of losing more as you buy more continues every day. My strict rule is: never add to a position when in loss, only increase when in profit. This keeps your mindset stable and your account alive.

**Use moving average cycles to identify trends.** A 3-day moving average turning upward is a short-term bullish signal; a 30-day moving average rising indicates medium-term growth; only when the 84-day moving average turns up does the main upward wave begin; a 120-day rising trend suggests a long-term bullish outlook. No need to blindly chase high; focus on coins in an uptrend, as that offers the highest probability and saves time.

**Daily review is a must.** Check whether your logic for holding coins has changed, review the weekly K-line to see if it still aligns with your previous judgment, and adjust your strategy promptly. The market changes, so your thinking must adapt.

After so many years of live trading, my biggest takeaway isn’t how much money I’ve made, but learning to respect risk. Avoiding pitfalls steadily and earning consistent profits—that’s what the longest-standing people in the crypto space do.