#美联储政策 Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about Federal Reserve policies, and market expectations of rate cuts are also influencing the performance of risk assets. I want to share a real observation:

The Fed's policy shifts often serve as a "barometer" of investor sentiment. From quantitative tightening to reserve management purchases, and then to market expectations of about three rate cuts around March 2026, these signals seem attractive but are essentially changes in liquidity expectations. Some analyses suggest that if policies proceed as planned, Bitcoin could rise to $92,000 to $98,000; conversely, if expectations fall short, the decline could be quite significant—possibly down to $70,000.

This gap reminds us of an important fact: **Policy expectations themselves are a double-edged sword**. When most people are betting on the same direction, risks are quietly accumulating.

My advice is this: rather than chasing short-term gains from policy windows, it’s better to reassess your position allocation. Ask yourself, if the expectations turn out the opposite, how much drawdown can your assets withstand? Have you left enough room for defense? In the long run, those allocations that keep you rational across different policy cycles are truly stable.

When liquidity arrives, we can participate moderately; but always remember, behind every opportunity lurks corresponding risks. Staying clear-headed is more valuable than catching any market wave.