2026-01-09 04:20:18

Where does the 3000x excess return come from? Behind it often lies a contrarian mindset and an investment philosophy with a high risk appetite. As a legendary figure in the tech investment field, Peter Thiel's investment decision logic has never followed the conventional path—daring to heavily invest when others avoid, and to deploy when the market is cold. This counterintuitive investment strategy has been validated in extreme cases like Elon Musk and SpaceX. True excess returns often stem from your unique judgment of future trends and the ability to maintain execution amid uncertainty. Investors who can identify the next tenfold, hundredfold, or even thousandfold opportunities are usually thinkers willing to break through conventional wisdom.

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CafeMinor

· 01-12 02:06

Basically, it's just about winning the bet. Everyone wants to think in reverse, but the problem is that most people think in reverse to the point of bankruptcy.

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PonziDetector

· 01-11 08:35

Basically, you still have to bet on the right direction, but anyone can say that this thing is easy.

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NftDeepBreather

· 01-09 11:17

Honestly, numbers like 3000x look exciting, but how many people can really buy the dip? The key is still differences in perception and courage. Reverse thinking sounds simple, but in practice it's a gamble on your own judgment. Luckily, Thiel chose the outlier Elon Musk. However, I think most people end up losing everything, having ideas without the luck to back them up is pointless. Maintaining your mindset amidst uncertainty is really more difficult than predicting the right trend. I have personal experience with this.

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wagmi_eventually

· 01-09 04:50

Well said, but about the 3000x... isn't luck a big factor too? By the way, Thiel's move was indeed extraordinary, something ordinary people can't replicate. Reverse thinking easily leads to enormous losses; how do you draw the line?

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rugpull_survivor

· 01-09 04:41

Honestly, a 3000x return sounds exciting, but most people lose everything before that moment arrives. Contrarian thinking sounds impressive, but the key is to bet correctly for it to count. Thiel's theories are indeed powerful, but they can't be replicated—everyone's risk tolerance is different. I just want to ask, what happened to those contrarian investors who didn't get their bets right? But to be fair, the most lucrative opportunities in crypto are indeed the ones most people overlook.

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ShamedApeSeller

· 01-09 04:41

Basically, it's just about betting on the right direction, but the problem is most people bet incorrectly.

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FromMinerToFarmer

· 01-09 04:38

In plain terms, you need to have guts; those who dare to go all-in will win big.

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BottomMisser

· 01-09 04:32

To be honest, numbers like 3000x sound exciting, but how many people actually get it right? Most of it is just gambling. Reverse thinking isn't about reckless behavior; you need an information advantage. The advantage of Thiel's generation is gone now. Everyone is talking about counterintuitive strategies, but isn't it just about luck... The SpaceX example is always brought up, but what about the failures? Selective amnesia? What seems like a unique judgment is actually just a combination of being bold and lucky, nothing more to admit.

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