2026-01-09 04:22:40

The recent week has been quite interesting for crude oil prices. US initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, which actually reinforced the market’s view of a soft landing for the economy. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials have been hinting that there is still room for rate cuts this year, causing the US dollar index to remain weak and volatile. This is a positive for Brent crude oil priced in USD—valuation support is in place.

Geopolitical factors are also playing a role. The shipping situation in the Red Sea remains uncertain; major shipping companies have not announced resumption plans, resulting in consistently high transportation costs for crude oil, providing real support for oil prices. Moreover, OPEC+ reiterated its production cut commitments through the first quarter of 2026, with core member countries not planning to increase output for now. Market expectations of tightening supply continue to ferment, and bullish sentiment has remained strong over the past couple of days.

From a technical perspective, the hourly Bollinger Bands are now narrowing and then opening upward again. The upper band maintains a gentle upward slope, while the middle and lower bands are also trending higher, forming a typical bullish channel. The moving averages are arranged in a bullish alignment, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages continuously crossing above the 20-day moving average and establishing support.

From an operational standpoint, the 62.1 level is the preferred entry point. It coincides with the confluence of the hourly middle Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward move, serving as a key support level after a pullback. The risk-reward ratio here is quite favorable.

For adding positions, consider 61.6, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward move and also touches the 20-day moving average support on the hourly chart. This is a secondary support within the bullish trend; if the price retraces to this level, the support is likely to be strong.

Risk management should focus on 61.0. This level is the resonance support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward move and the lower Bollinger Band, serving as a critical neckline of the recent upward trend. If the price effectively breaks below this level (closing below it), the hourly bullish structure will be broken, and a decisive stop-loss is necessary.

In summary: go long at 62.1, add at 61.6, and protect at 61.0, with targets in the 63-65 range.

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HodlAndChill

· 01-11 20:18

62.1 Entering this wave still feels stable, with the middle band of Bollinger and Fibonacci support overlapping, which clearly indicates that the bulls are holding strong. The persistent high freight rates in the Red Sea are indeed an invisible positive, and the longer the airlines remain inactive, the more potential there is for oil prices to rise. Is the Federal Reserve hinting at a rate cut again? Then the dollar will continue to weaken, and this time, there's really something to watch with Brent crude. 61.6 is a good re-entry point, but I'm worried that if it breaks below 61.0, I might have to run immediately. The market pace this week is a bit fast. The target zone of 63-65 looks comfortable, provided OPEC+ doesn't cause any more trouble.

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AirdropHunterXiao

· 01-11 03:50

Hey, the Red Sea area has been so turbulent, and shipping costs have remained high. This is indeed a strong support for oil prices. 62.1 buy-in, 61.6 add, 61.0 defend, clearly stated—it's all about whether we can hold the 61 level. The Fed's rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar have made the Brent oil move quite interesting. Bullish sentiment has been pretty lively these past two days. OPEC+’s production cut enforcement remains firm, and the expectation of tightening supply hasn't changed. This is the core support for oil prices. From a technical perspective, the bullish arrangement is quite clear. The only concern is a sudden black swan event breaking the line; if we can't hold 61.0 then it's all over.

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unrekt.eth

· 01-09 04:51

The Red Sea freight costs are really an invisible booster for oil prices; shipping companies have become timid.

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TokenDustCollector

· 01-09 04:49

Ha, the freight rates in the Red Sea are still high, this wave is a steady positive signal. --- I've had my eye on the 62.1 level for a while, just waiting for a confirmation signal. --- Does the Federal Reserve still plan to cut interest rates? That would explain why the US dollar index is so weak. --- The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards with a bullish arrangement, this rhythm feels pretty comfortable. --- The idea of adding positions at 61.6 is good, let's see if it can really dip back to that level. --- OPEC+ is quite determined in this round of production cuts; the supply side is really tight. --- The target of 63 to 65 is a bit ambitious; it must break through 62.5 first. --- Once 61.0 is broken, cut losses decisively; this point is very clear. --- The geopolitical situation is heating up; when can the Red Sea issue finally ease? --- The hourly chart's bullish structure needs to be maintained.

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LightningSentry

· 01-09 04:48

Damn, after this combo punch, the bulls are really looking a bit solid. Entering at 62.1 feels much more reassuring. I'm already tired of the Bollinger bands combined with Fibonacci stuff, but I have to admit, this time it really has some substance. The cost in the Red Sea area remains high, and OPEC hasn't loosened its stance. It feels like there are still stories to tell. The entry point offers a really good cost-performance ratio; let's see if 61.0 can hold. Once it breaks, just exit decisively. The 63-65 target sounds good, but with oil prices so volatile right now, do you really dare to go all-in?

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StrawberryIce

· 01-09 04:45

Hey, 62.1 is indeed attractive. The Bollinger Bands + Fibonacci confluence support indicates what? It’s the level the bulls want to defend. Wait, the Red Sea shipping costs are still bottlenecked; this is the real support, not just technical hype. Once 61.0 breaks, we have to run. Is the hourly bullish trend this fragile? It feels riskier than expected. Targeting 65 feels comfortable, but the market has been a bit strange these past two days. The dollar weakness is correct, but will OPEC really implement production cuts? Haha. Should I add to my position or wait and see? I got caught once a few days ago, so I have some psychological shadow over the bulls now.

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AlphaWhisperer

· 01-09 04:43

Damn, the Red Sea has really been a cash cow for oil prices lately, with freight rates soaring and bulls making huge profits. If you ask me, the Federal Reserve's continuous hints at interest rate cuts are essentially putting a leash on the dollar, and WTI crude is soaring without any doubt. The 62.1 level is indeed sweet, with the Bollinger middle band combined with Fibonacci overlays, feeling very stable. Once it breaks below 61.0, it's really time to run; don't hesitate. I think the key here is the change in OPEC+ attitude. When supply tightens, the market seems to get a shot of adrenaline. Can it really reach 63-65? It's a bit uncertain now, but the bullish momentum is still there. If the Red Sea issue isn't resolved, I think oil prices will have to be supported continuously, and anyway, airlines haven't shown any movement. I'm hesitant to chase the 61.6 re-entry point; it feels like it could be shaken out easily. The key still depends on the dollar's trend—if it weakens, WTI crude will take off.

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HappyToBeDumped

· 01-09 04:35

62.1 this level is really amazing, Bollinger middle band combined with Fibonacci support, at first glance it looks like a trap set by the main force. The Red Sea game isn't over yet, with shipping costs not decreasing, where does the reason for falling come from if not oil prices? The bulls still have to eat it. The dollar is starting to act up again, the expectation of interest rate cuts is really a reassurance for oil prices. Once 61.0 breaks, the bullish trend on the hourly chart will be over, and you’ll need to be ruthless and hit the stop-loss button. Target 63-65 is a bit uncertain, this wave has been too smooth, be careful of a sudden reversal.

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