2026-01-09 04:25:23

I looked at an interesting data statistic. Historically, as long as the cumulative increase in the first 5 trading days of the year exceeds 1%, the probability of achieving positive returns for the entire year can reach over 87%—this sounds quite exaggerated. Even more incredible is that the average annual return following such a start is close to 16%, with a maximum drawdown of only 11.4%. Both from the perspective of return rate and risk control, this clearly outperforms other markets.

Of course, using historical data to directly predict future trends has always been like drawing a sword from a stone, but looking at it from another angle—it's indeed in a bull market cycle, and based on various indicators, this wave of market行情 is probably far from reaching its peak. The market story is likely to continue.

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AirdropAutomaton

· 01-11 22:57

87% chance sounds pretty good, but to be honest, would you dare to bet on this pattern applying to an individual? I don't believe it.

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CoffeeNFTs

· 01-11 17:15

This data sounds wonderful but I am still cautious; historical probabilities are always proven wrong. A 1% increase in the first two weeks of the year guarantees a profit for the whole year? Who are you fooling? Maybe this time will be different. But on the other hand, it really feels like this cycle hasn't truly taken off yet, so let's wait and see. Honestly, I don't believe the 87% probability, but there's no reason to give up now. In a bull market cycle, this kind of data has some reference value; a bear market is just a joke haha. Anyway, it's still early in the year, let the bullets fly a bit longer. The 16% increase target seems a bit conservative; I need to leverage more. Maybe that's over-interpreting it; the market always has surprises.

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AllInAlice

· 01-10 22:56

87% probability sounds great, but just look at historical data—don't take it too seriously --- A good start doesn't mean the whole year will be good, cut it out with that kind of talk --- The bull market isn't over yet? Then I'll keep dollar-cost averaging --- 11.4% drawdown? That's just a dream --- The data looks good, but when it comes to losses, no one can save you --- So should I go all in or run away now? --- Here we go again, every time saying we're still far from the top --- This kind of statistical significance isn't very meaningful; the market doesn't follow a script --- I just want to know when I can double my investment --- A 1% increase at the start of the year is indeed a good sign --- Stop messing around, just hold on tight

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DeFiGrayling

· 01-09 21:47

87% probability? Sounds pretty uncertain; history is always a mirror, whether it can be replicated depends on the situation. --- A 1% increase at the start can predict the whole year's performance? That seems a bit too optimistic. --- I've heard many times that the bull market hasn't peaked yet, but the key is when the real top will be. --- An average increase of 16% sounds great, but I'm just worried about missing out. --- Good data is nice, but making money is what matters; otherwise, it's just paper wealth. --- This kind of statistical regularity often fails once applied; that's just how financial markets are. --- Wait, when did this 11.4% drawdown happen? I feel something's off. --- The bull market keeps telling stories; only good storytelling can lead to profits, and if it fails, who will pay the price? --- A 1% rise in the first 5 trading days can determine the whole year? Then you'd have to watch the market every day. --- It was the same last year, and you all know how that turned out.

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-09 04:55

87% chance it sounds suspicious, but this data is indeed a bit intense 16% annual average increase with 11.4% drawdown, honestly, the risk-reward ratio is solid History of course can't be trusted, but this pace doesn't really look like a bear market right now

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LiquidityHunter

· 01-09 04:54

87% probability of being so absolute, I feel like there's some trick... Historical data hitting back even harder. I believe the bull market hasn't peaked yet, but don't be brainwashed by the 1% start. Earned an average of 16% just at the beginning of the year? Sounds good, but who actually made that much? Wow, if this data could really predict so accurately, everyone would be financially free by now. A drawdown of only 11.4% is way too optimistic... The story continues, but only if it doesn't fall apart halfway through. A 1% increase can determine the trend for the whole year? I don't quite believe that based on history.

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SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 01-09 04:54

87% probability? It sounds a bit too perfect, but this wave definitely feels different.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 01-09 04:49

87% probability? Sounds like history repeating itself, but this time it's a bit different.

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HalfPositionRunner

· 01-09 04:46

87% probability sounds a bit shaky, gotta be careful with historical patterns If this bull market really hasn't peaked, then we must seize the opportunity Good-looking data is just that—good-looking. I'm just worried it's another case of survivor bias messing around An 11.4% pullback sounds comfortable, but whether you can handle it when it really drops is another story Predicting a positive full-year return with only a 1% gain in the first five trading days? I don't think so The bull market isn't fully over, and it's not an excuse—it's time to take profits, everyone If this logic were applied last year, it would have been slapped in the face long ago With the current market enthusiasm, the possibility of the story continuing is indeed quite high A 16% annual return isn't really out of the question, but is the risk really only this much?

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RuntimeError

· 01-09 04:40

87% probability sounds pretty impressive, but I'm more concerned about whether we're actually in this opening move right now. Historical data is just history; will this time hit new highs or lows again? Wow, if it can really stay steady at 16%, what more analysis do you need? Just go all in. Is the bull market far from the top? I feel like the risks are also piling up. By the way, where did this data come from? Could there be a severe survivor bias? Deciding the whole year based on the first 5 trading days? You're overthinking it, brother.

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