#比特币长期发展趋势 Recently, I have been observing analyses about weak demand for Bitcoin and I have some thoughts to share.

Looking back at this cycle, the main demand drivers—US spot ETFs, the presidential election, and the treasury company concept—each pushed prices higher one after another. But in the fourth quarter of this year, there was a clear shift—ETF net buying turned into net selling, and addresses holding large amounts of Bitcoin grew at a rate below the historical average. This deterioration in demand reminds me of the signs before the peak of the 2021 cycle.

The price has already fallen below the 365-day moving average, which has historically been a key boundary between bull and bear markets. The data is clear, and we need to view it with rationality.

This is not to say that Bitcoin has no long-term value, but rather to remind everyone that cyclical adjustments are normal in the market. The key is to protect ourselves—review whether our position allocations are reasonable, whether the proportion of Bitcoin in our assets is within a tolerable range, and whether our mindset is stable enough to handle such volatility.

In the long run, Bitcoin’s development story is still ongoing, but infrastructure needs to be built on a secure and solid foundation. During this phase of relatively weak demand, it is actually a good time to reset expectations, adjust strategies, and strengthen defenses.