The first major economic data release of the year is coming!

Non-farm payrolls and inflation expectation data will be released one after another. If any of these "misses," the market could be shattered.

Currently, institutions predict that this month's non-farm job additions may only be around 60,000, a significant month-over-month decline, and the unemployment rate could even reach 4.5%. Sounds like a good sign—weak employment usually means the window for rate cuts is opening, which should be positive for risk assets like BTC and ETH, right?

Hold on. Don’t forget that inflation is still hanging there, with expectations as high as 4.20%. If prices still can't be brought down, no matter how poor the employment data is, it won't wake up the Fed's rate cut intentions. At that point, market movements are unpredictable. The result is—regardless of whether the data is good or bad, the market may overreact, triggering chain reactions of sell-offs.

Looking back to early last year, when non-farm data exceeded expectations, it ended up crushing risk assets. This shows a hard truth: good data doesn’t necessarily mean the market will rise. The market is already on edge, and even a slight breeze can cause panic.

Whether employment improves or inflation heats up in the end, volatility is inevitable. Are you ready to weather this wave of fluctuations with your current positions?