The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is set to be released tonight (January 9, 2026), and this data could have a direct impact on the short-term trend of risk assets like Bitcoin. Instead of blindly guessing, it's better to clarify the logic behind the data.

**What is the market expecting?**

According to consensus forecasts by economists, January's non-farm job additions are expected to reach 175,000, rebounding from December's 145,000 — but don’t get too excited yet, as this number is still well below the pre-pandemic monthly average of 200,000. In simple terms, while the U.S. labor market hasn't collapsed, signs of cooling are already quite evident.

Regarding the unemployment rate, it is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. The year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings might slow from 3.9% to 3.8%. Although this is a small decline, for traders concerned about inflation, any slowdown in wage growth indicates less pressure on wages to push up prices.

**Why is tonight’s data particularly noteworthy?**

In December, non-farm job additions were only 145,000, already below expectations. The market had started to worry about a potential weakening of the labor market. Coupled with the fact that economic growth is slowing, the downward volatility in new employment figures is causing some concern.

More critically, wage growth is a key focus. The Federal Reserve currently monitors the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index for core inflation. Although overall inflation has shown signs of retreat, wage growth in the labor market remains a significant driver of rising prices. In other words, if hourly wage growth does not continue to slow, the Fed might adopt a more cautious stance on further rate cuts — which directly affects the attractiveness of risk assets like Bitcoin.

**Potential disruptive factors**

There are several special factors to watch for in January. Weather conditions at the start of the year, post-holiday adjustments in corporate hiring, and other short-term influences could cause data volatility. This means that even if the data meets expectations, it may not necessarily move the market significantly. Conversely, if there are obvious anomalies, market reactions could be quite intense.

**What does this mean for Bitcoin?**

If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations (e.g., employment gains far surpass 175,000, or wage growth unexpectedly accelerates), the market will reassess the Fed’s rate cut path, potentially boosting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, if the data is weaker than expected, it would reinforce expectations of rate cuts, benefiting risk assets.

The bottom line is: tonight’s employment data, to some extent, is a vote on the Fed’s monetary policy. As traders, it’s important to prepare plans but also not to overinterpret a single data point — the true market trend usually requires multiple signals to confirm.