#以太坊大户持仓变化 Bitcoin hourly chart has recently shown an interesting signal. It looks calm, but there may be underlying directional opportunities brewing.

From the candlestick chart, BTC just closed at the 91104.1 level. The Bollinger Bands are now very tight—upper band at 91723.6, lower band at 89796.4, with volatility hitting a weekly low. What does this narrowing pattern typically indicate in technical analysis? It’s usually a prelude to a trend change. Regarding MACD, the DIF value is 28.2, DEA is 50.4, and the two lines are close together and about to form a death cross. However, there’s a detail—bearish momentum is actually waning. Trading volume has shrunk to 683, and the market is showing clear signs of reluctance to sell. Decreasing volume often precedes a breakout in a one-sided trend.

Key levels to watch: above 91700 is a breakout point. If broken, the next target could be around 92500; below, the support is at 90500. Holding this line would mean the bulls still have a solid footing.

On-chain data also signals something. In the past 24 hours, whale addresses have net accumulated 5200 BTC, which is significant. Exchange balances have fallen to a three-year low, and miner outflows have decreased by 30%—indicating large holders are quietly accumulating, and selling pressure in the market has basically dried up. Hash rate has also hit a new high, showing the network is healthy and providing strong fundamental support.

Recent news also offers some stimulation. The Federal Reserve’s signal last night leaned toward "moderate balance sheet reduction," which has moved risk assets. Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows of over $1.2 billion for five consecutive days, with institutions actively buying. Regulatory clouds are clearing, and market sentiment indices are shifting from fear to greed—this timing is quite interesting.

Overall, signals from these dimensions point in the same direction. Looking back at historical data, Bitcoin has experienced a "contraction-explosion" pattern about 13 times, with 11 of those breaking upward—so the probability is quite high. In the short term, I believe the chance of a breakout exceeds 80%.

For target levels: in the short term, around 93,000; mid-term possibly up to 95,000. The risk control line is set at 89,800 (the lower Bollinger Band). Every correction in a bull market could be a buying opportunity, but it requires rhythm and proper position management—recommend to buy in stages and set stop-losses. Keep a close eye on volume signals on the hourly chart. Once a volume breakout occurs above 91700, consider adding positions; if not, continue to observe.

Bull markets are not the time to guess the top. Following the trend often leads to profits. Currently, BTC may be approaching a key wave pattern; missing this could mean waiting for the next opportunity.