Economists: December Non-Farm Data Unlikely to Change the Fact that Employment Growth in 2025 Will Be the Weakest in Decades

There are significant differences among economists' expectations for the December non-farm payroll report. The market generally expects an increase of 55,000 jobs in December, but some economists suggest that seasonal factors such as holiday hiring peaks could push the total monthly employment for December above 105,000.
FactSet's consensus forecast indicates that, regardless of the scenario, the unemployment rate will fall to 4.5%. Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon, stated that while such data may seem like a positive sign of a strengthening labor market, it is more likely a misleading signal. The true underlying driver of employment growth could be much weaker, and this softness has persisted for some time. Whether the increase is 55,000 or double that, the December employment data will not alter the fundamental trend of the labor market in 2025: aside from the pandemic-distorted 2020, last year's employment growth was the weakest in decades.
Heather Long, Chief Economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, pointed out that total employment growth in 2025 is expected to be only 710,000, making it the worst performance since 2003 outside of recession periods. Even in 2010, immediately following the Great Recession, the hiring situation was more favorable than in 2025.