#比特币长期发展趋势 Seeing CZ's Christmas message, I am reminded of the scenes from those years. When Bitcoin fell to $2 in 2011, the forums were filled with voices saying "whales are cutting leeks" and "this thing is a scam"; during the major bear markets of 2014 and 2018, everyone around me was urging me to cut losses, as if holding Bitcoin was equivalent to holding a piece of scrap paper.

True early adopters never entered with cheers and excitement; quite the opposite — we made choices in extreme uncertainty. Back then, there was no Grayscale Trust, no listed company backing, and not even the ecosystem we see today. When buying, our minds were filled with thoughts like "Will this thing go to zero tomorrow?"

That’s why cycle review is so important. Every bull and bear cycle tests the psychological bottom line of participants. After the all-time high at the end of 2017, a group of people entered and suffered a 60% loss in 2018; the madness of 2021 also eliminated some high-purchasers. But those who bought at the depths of fear are now smiling.

Looking at the past more than ten years, Bitcoin’s long-term logic has never changed — scarcity, censorship resistance, and continuous network value accumulation. What changes is only the repetitive nature of human psychology within cycles. When extreme pessimism appears in the next cycle, it might be the real opportunity. This is not just motivational talk, but a fact repeatedly proven by history.