#比特币长期发展趋势 Seeing Pompliano's judgment, I actually agree a bit. The volatility compression signal is indeed worth paying attention to— the probability of a significant decline in Q1 next year is indeed not high, which has practical significance for risk management in copy trading strategies.

But I want to give everyone a warning here: low volatility does not mean no risk; it might actually be a prelude to another kind of risk. Recently, when reviewing the accounts of some aggressive traders, I found that during periods of volatility compression, they kept increasing their positions. Once liquidity suddenly changes, the cost of stop-losses can multiply.

Bitcoin's nearly 300% increase over the past three years is indeed a "monster-level" performance, but the logic of copy trading cannot blindly follow just based on long-term gains. The key is to understand each trader's risk preference and position management style: some experts reduce risk exposure during low volatility, while others leverage up to bet on the direction. Their annualized returns may look similar, but their drawdown curves are completely different.

My advice is, if you are currently copying a trader who is optimistic about long-term Bitcoin, now is a good time to check their position sizing logic—are they controlling risk during low volatility, or are they actively deploying? Choosing the wrong copy trading target, even the best long-term trend can't save a short-term account explosion. The most costly lessons in practice often come from exactly this.