#美联储政策 The recent move in US Treasury yields is quite interesting. Hasset's remarks indeed sent a signal to the market—AI-driven productivity keeps economic growth at 4%, which directly dampens expectations of rate cuts. Meanwhile, traders are betting wildly on the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to 4%, with $80 million in options premiums and open interest surging 300% in a week. This stark contrast is quite intriguing.

Recently, I've been observing a few bond traders whose position adjustment logic is very clear: positive economic data → delay in rate cuts → yields rise. These folks aren't betting on the Fed pivoting, but rather on how long the current good data can last. The key is the time window—they're focusing on contracts expiring in March, indicating a 2-3 month forecast cycle.

My advice is, if you want to follow this kind of thinking, don't greedily chase high short positions. A smarter approach is layered follow-up: allocate 30% of your funds to aggressive traders with high risk appetite, 60% to steady, medium-term positions, and keep 10% reserved for stop-loss. After all, positive economic data is real, but market pricing can change quickly—reversals often happen between one or two data releases.

The current game is: is AI productivity really that strong? Can it sustain 4% growth? If not, the Fed will still have to cut rates, and that will be a fascinating reverse harvest. I believe this logical chain still has at least 3-6 months of room for debate.